SEATTLE, Wash – Oct. 12, 2025 – Global mortality rates are falling but not among youths and young adults, according to the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study published in The Lancet today and presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin. Additionally, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) now account for nearly two-thirds of the world's total mortality and morbidity, with ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes leading the globe. Researchers also estimate that nearly half of all death and disability could be prevented by modifying some of the leading risk factors, such as reducing high levels of blood sugar and high body mass index (BMI).
"The rapid growth in the world's aging population and evolving risk factors have ushered in a new era of global health challenges," said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. "The evidence presented in the Global Burden of Disease study is a wake-up call, urging government and health care leaders to respond swiftly and strategically to the disturbing trends that are reshaping public health needs."
Dr. Murray's team at IHME and its GBD Collaborator Network of 16,500 scientists and researchers collected and analyzed data and produced estimates for 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors by age and sex globally, regionally, and nationally for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations from 1990 to 2023, making the GBD the most comprehensive research quantifying health loss. Over 310,000 total data sources were used for the latest iteration, 30% of them new to this year's study. It includes 1,211 location-years of provisional all-age vital registration data, which had not previously been used, and which provide more timely information. The global health assessments outlined in three peer-reviewed capstones cover critical areas of the GBD: a demographic analysis , causes of death , and the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors .
Demographic analysis : Global mortality declines, youth deaths climb
Despite population growth and aging, the 2023 global age-standardized mortality rate declined 67% since 1950, and all countries and territories marked declines. Global life expectancy returned to pre-pandemic levels at 76.3 years for females and 71.5 years for males, which is more than 20 years higher compared to 1950. Despite this progress, stark geographic differences remain, with life expectancy ranging from as high as 83 years in high-income regions to as low as 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa.
Among adolescents and young adults, the largest increase in deaths was registered among those aged 20 to 39 in high-income North America from 2011 to 2023, mainly due to suicide, drug overdose, and high quantities of alcohol. During the same period, deaths in the 5–19-year age group increased in Eastern Europe, high-income North America, and the Caribbean.
Over the entire study period, the number of infant deaths declined more than for any other age group. From 2011 to 2023, East Asia recorded the largest decrease of 68% in the mortality rate for the under-5 age group due to better nutrition, vaccines, and stronger health systems.
Advances in modeling for the GBD 2023 study showed mortality in children ages 5–14 in sub-Saharan Africa from 1950 to 2021 was higher than previously estimated, an increase driven by high rates of respiratory infections and tuberculosis, other infectious diseases, and unintentional injuries. New calculations also showed mortality in young adult females ages 15–29 in sub-Saharan Africa was 61% higher than previously estimated, mostly due to maternal mortality, road injuries, and meningitis. Read the capstone on the demographic changes in global health.
Causes of death : Shift from infectious to non-communicable diseases
Causes of death are shifting from infectious to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), creating new global health challenges, particularly for low-income countries. After standing as the leading cause of death in 2021, COVID-19 plunged to the 20th place in 2023, putting ischemic heart disease and stroke back at the top, followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal disorders. Since 1990, mortality rates for ischemic heart disease and stroke have declined, and so have diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Conversely, during the same period the death rate increased for diabetes, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease, and HIV/AIDS.
While the global mean age at death increased from 46.4 in 1990 to 62.9 years in 2023, geographic inequities were profound. The highest mean age of death was recorded in the high-income super-region, with females reaching 80.5 years and males at 74.4 years. The lowest mean age of death was in sub-Saharan Africa, with females at 37.1 years and males at 34.8 years.
The all-cause probability of dying before age 70 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, with drug use disorders as one of the leading causes. In sub-Saharan Africa, the probability increased for many NCDs, and the mean age of death from NCDs was lower than expected. In the high-income super-region, the probability increased for drug use disorders, and the mean age of death was lower than expected. Read the capstone on the 292 fatal conditions .
Burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors : Changing certain factors could reduce death and disability
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for nearly two-thirds of the world's total death and disability. The top three causes were ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Low-income regions also saw a sharp rise in NCDs, further constraining nations with limited resources.
From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell 36%. This measures total years of healthy life lost by examining the years lost from premature death and years lived with disability. From 2010 to 2023, DALY rates for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases fell by almost 26%. This was led by rates for diarrheal diseases being cut in half, a 43% decrease in rates for HIV/AIDS, and a 42% drop for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remain the top causes of CMNN diseases but have declined 17% and 25%, respectively.
Almost half of the global mortality and morbidity in 2023 was attributable to 88 modifiable risk factors. The 10 risk factors with the highest proportion of health loss were high systolic blood pressure, particulate matter pollution, smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, low birthweight and short gestation, high BMI, high LDL cholesterol, kidney dysfunction, child growth failure, and lead exposure. Between 2010 and 2023, DALY rates for high BMI rose by almost 11%, drug use by nearly 9%, and high blood sugar by 6%.
New GBD modeling methods for lead exposure, the 10th-leading risk, also revealed a direct link to cardiovascular diseases. Removing lead from fuel has contributed to substantial declines in exposure over the years, but it's still a common environmental contaminant that can be found in paint in older buildings, contaminated soil, water, spices, and many cooking utensils.
Climate-sensitive risks, such as air pollution and heat, continue to have a more significant impact on global health. The DALY rates for the second-leading risk, particulate matter pollution, were highest at the super-region level in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. High temperatures are also exacerbating vulnerabilities in that same region, particularly the Sahel, by compounding the effects of drought, food insecurity, and displacement.
Mental health disorders rose steeply, with anxiety disorders increasing by 63% and depressive disorders by 26%. In addition, sexual abuse and intimate partner violence were identified as preventable contributors to depression, anxiety, and other health consequences.
Among children under 5, the 2023 leading risk factors were child and maternal malnutrition, particulate matter pollution, and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH). For children and adolescents aged 5 to 14 years, iron deficiency was the leading risk, followed by others related to unsafe WaSH and child and maternal malnutrition. For the 15 to 49 age group, the top two risks were unsafe sex and occupational injuries, followed by high BMI, high systolic blood pressure, and smoking. For those 50 to 69 years, high systolic blood pressure was the leading risk, followed by smoking, high blood sugar, high BMI, high LDL cholesterol, and kidney dysfunction.
From 2010 to 2023, injury-related DALY rates decreased by 16% during the same time period. The burden of injuries was higher in males, particularly older children and young adults ages 10 to 24, accounting for more than double the total DALYs compared to that of females.
The GBD 2023 study highlights the urgent need for policymakers to expand health priorities beyond reducing child mortality to include adolescents and young adults, particularly in areas with higher rates of mortality than previously known.
"Decades of work to close the gap in low-income regions with persistent health inequities are in danger of unraveling due to the recent cuts to international aid," said Emmanuela Gakidou, senior author and professor at IHME. "These countries rely on global health funding for life-saving primary care, medicine, and vaccines. Without it, the gap is sure to widen."
The GBD estimates are also available in various interactive data visualization tools , including GBD Compare and GBD Results .
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