A summary of the challenges posed to global trade, workforces and employee wellbeing by ongoing conflicts and political tensions around the world has been published by the International Bar Association's (IBA) Global Employment Institute (GEI). Titled ( Global war, global trade: a Global Employment Institute perspective ) (the Report), the publication is free to access on the IBA website.
This fresh perspective, developed to complement the 13th Annual Global Report: National regulatory trends in human resources law , explores how socio-political events - such as the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Palestine war, rising nationalism and the climate crisis - are influencing economic activity and organisational cultures across sectors worldwide.
Trade conflicts - notably between the United States and China, and between the US and the European Union - have also led to increased costs, inflation and job disruptions in sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and technology. The Report also notes the evolving situation in North America, where trade policies could influence employment in key industries.
Economic uncertainty and tensions in trade are stated to be at a critical juncture, with trade disputes continuing to influence employment landscapes globally. For example, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remains a pivotal framework, though its future is uncertain amid political shifts. The automotive, electronics and energy sectors are particularly vulnerable to potential trade restrictions.
The Report highlights that businesses and organisations have been forced to adapt by reassessing their workplace policies, ceasing production operations, reducing workforces, upskilling staff and/or sourcing new markets to navigate fluctuating opportunities. Employees have also had to adapt to more unstable work environments and reductions in wage value due to inflation.
Philip Berkowitz, GEI Council Officer and author of the Report, said, 'As lawyers and human resource professionals, it is crucial to regularly assess the impact of global conflicts. Rising migration flows, sanctions and tariffs are creating economic and social disorder that will likely persist for many years.'
The key challenges identified include:
- stricter immigration laws affecting employee numbers and skills pools;
- rising psychological and emotional stresses among staff, which have driven employers to take staff mental health more seriously;
- refugee flows, migrant labour and control of immigration impacting workforces and skills in neighbouring or host countries;
- increasing costs of materials and goods reducing salary value and causing job losses as companies struggle to make profits;
- climate change legislation creating new jobs in sustainable practices; and
- the growing role of artificial intelligence (AI) being used in recruitment, with calls for greater transparency and concerns over job displacement in sectors such as banking, finance, logistics and translation.
Country-specific examples reveal the varied impacts of these issues.
- In France and Germany, the Ukraine war has driven energy price inflation and higher wage demands, which is creating tension amongst workforces, unions and organisations as employees attempt to counteract cost of living rises.
- In Belgium, human resources (HR) managers are managing workplace tensions related to the Israel-Palestine war.
- In Nordic countries there is tension between the need for migrant labour to fill skills gaps and restrictive immigration policies.
- Countries including Canada and Indonesia are fostering sustainable jobs and renewable energy sectors, respectively, and Portugal and Serbia are prioritising environmental sustainability and health and safety to attract talent.
Valeria Morosini, GEI Council Officer, added, 'The report demonstrates that this labyrinth of disruption also affects mental health and workplace harmony. Employees' opinions and consciences on global issues can influence organisational culture, making it essential for companies to manage conflicting views thoughtfully to minimise disruption. Furthermore, with the growing role of AI in HR, legal practitioners must navigate the intersection of AI governance, privacy laws and employment law to ensure responsible deployment and compliance.'
The Report concludes that global conflicts, trade tensions, the climate crisis and technological advancements will continue to influence human resources policies and practices. Employers, governments and legal professionals must navigate these complex challenges with resilience, adaptability, and a commitment to ethical standards.
