A continuous feedback loop of media reporting, political opportunism, protest groups and social media algorithms are fuelling the spread of conspiracy theories rather than one specific cause, says new findings from the Researching Europe, Digitalisation and Conspiracy Theories (REDACT) project.
A series of reports published by the pan-European research project, led by Professor Clare Birchall, Professor of Contemporary Culture in the Department of English, shows how conspiracy theories differ by country due to social, historical and political factors.
The REDACT project is funded by CHANSE: a collaboration between 27 funding organisations from 24 countries. Fourteen researchers from around Europe produced seven reports looking into some of the unique aspects of how mis- and disinformation circulate online.
The newly launched reports feature specialised findings in Europe, including the UK; Germany, Austria and Switzerland; the Balkans; the Baltics; Slovakia; and Poland.
Conspiracy theories are not just a form of disinformation - they are deeply-rooted by a need for belonging and a sense of identity. Often people believe conspiracy narratives as part of their world view or way of life, so it's not possible to simply "take out" the incorrect pieces of information that they believe. This is made even harder by the feedback loop between the media, politicians, offline protest groups and social media.
Professor Clare Birchall, Professor of Contemporary Culture
Conspiracy thinking is not new. Yet in recent years, conspiracy theories have become increasingly widespread and normalised, rather than merely on the sidelines of society. Downplaying their impact or dismissing them does not make these theories disappear - it actually allows them to take up all the oxygen on a topic and dominate discussion.
Professor Peter Knight, Professor of American Studies at the University of Manchester, Co-Investigator on REDACT
The feedback loop
Although conspiracy theories were once seen as existing on the fringes of society, the research shows that politicians and news coverage often contribute to these theories going viral. By bringing attention to the theories - even if only to comment on their inaccuracy - they spread to a wider audience through social media algorithms and mainstream media reports.
This creates a 'feedback loop' between the internet, protest groups, political parties and mainstream media reporting, blurring distinctions between the online and offline spread of conspiracy theories.
An example of the feedback loop is seen in the Great Replacement conspiracy theory present across Europe. The report says that the rhetoric of populist politicians often uses dog whistles to hint at conspiracist accounts of non-white immigration to the extent that they are now some of the most important disseminators. The specifics of the conspiracy theory vary by country, but reflect anxiety about changing cultural values and demographics, even in spaces where levels of immigration are, in fact, low.
While Great Replacement talk certainly travels online, particularly on channels with lax or no moderation, its most influential disseminators are not social media pundits or the algorithms that amplify them but politicians using every platform available - both online and offline - to leverage anxiety about demographic change. This signals a shifting Overton window, where once-fringe ideas now shape political rhetoric.
Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in Europe, REDACT
How conspiracies evolve
While all the countries featured in the research do have connections to global conspiracist movements, they have their own forms of homegrown conspiracy culture too. This specificity must be considered when developing solutions, rather than importing a one-size-fits-all model from another country or region.
Many theories develop when people feel their genuine concerns are not listened to. For example, some people in the UK expressed worry about controls on individual freedom during the Covid lockdowns. This developed into fears around '15-minute cities', where conspiracists claimed people would be restricted in moving about their own towns.
Post-pandemic conspiracism is also marked by its agility… This allows conspiracism to evade moderation, feed alarmist media coverage and be exploited by populist politicians.
Professor Clare Birchall and Professor Peter Knight, Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in the UK
For German-speaking nations - Germany, Austria and Switzerland - believers seek out conspiracies online rather than coming across them by chance. Stigma around conspiracies remains from the aftermath of World War II when they moved to the margins of society, and their spread is common on the internet and in books. Often conspiracy theories emerge in the comments of a social media post rather than in the original post itself.
Lack of evaluation of efforts to tackle conspiracy theories and disinformation means there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of these initiatives. Disinformation and fact-checking services can become the subject of conspiracy theories too, which is a threat to the sector.
Voices have increasingly emerged that portray NGOs as part of a larger globalist plot, questioning both their independence and their good intentions. This greatly hinders the work of these organisations, as it can damage their reputation, lead to the suspension of funding streams, or - in the worst case - result in staff members being targeted with hate messages and threats.
Professor Michael Butter and Mara Precoma, Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in Austria, Germany and Switzerland
East versus West
The research uncovered differences between the status of conspiracy theories in Western and post-Soviet Europe largely due to histories of foreign occupation, conflict and the legacy of Soviet influence, which has understandably left suspicion of the state.
While the fear of the external enemy is strong, the fear of the internal traitor is perhaps the most significant difference between Eastern and Western European conspiracism.
Dr Elzbieta Drazkiewicz, Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in Poland
History has significantly influenced the reasons for this. In the Baltics (Latvia and Estonia), fear of hidden elites and foreign control stems from Nazi and Soviet occupation. George Orwell's dystopian-novel, 1984, is referenced frequently by conspiracists online, as it resonates with the public's memories of repression, surveillance and censorship - which is used to add emotional force.
The role of history is also crucial to understand the situation in the Balkan triangle (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia), where the countries' linguistic and cultural closeness creates a 'transnational conspiracist ecosystem'.
The legacy of the 1990s wars sustains a pervasive victimhood identity. Each community views itself as the historic casualty of external manipulation, making conspiracy explanations psychologically plausible and politically useful.
Nebojša Blanuša, Vedran Jerbić, Jasna Milošević-Đorđević and Professor Vladimir Turjačanin, Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in the Balkan Triangle (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia)
Unlike in Germany - where conspiracy theories are often relegated to fringe spaces - there is overlap with mainstream political and media narratives here. This has fed into interpretations of Russia's invasion in Ukraine, where news reports and political elites have invoked national traumas from the 1990s and lingering loyalties to other nations - reawakening nationalist leanings and a sense of threat.
In Poland, conspiracy theories do not always start online and have been pushed by politicians in the past. Popular conspiracies fixate on gender ideology and the LGBTQ+ community, labelling activists as national enemies akin to Nazi occupiers and Communists.
Fixation on these issues is imported from the US, rather than homegrown in Poland. Due to lack of evidence within their own country of conspiracist concerns being realised, users search online for 'evidence' and examples that back up their claims.
Slovakia - a country with very high levels of conspiracist belief - also focuses conspiracy theories on gender and LGBTQ+ ideology. Discussion positions activists and international institutions as aiming to destroy the '"natural" family, religion and national sovereignty', leading to real life consequences through amendments to the constitution affecting the rights of women and the LGBTQ+ community.
More than a mere "culture war" or opinion-based opposition to rights, anti-gender and anti-LGBTQ discourses function as a political technology using conspiratorial claims with tangible effects on policy and civic freedoms.
Dr Pavol Hardoš, Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in Slovakia
Stopping the spread
There are a range of solutions to combatting conspiracy theories, such as improving media literacy, debunking, prebunking, and fact-checking. While none offer a complete solution, each has their place.
The research looked at the effectiveness of existing models to tackle the spread of conspiracies through interviews with fact-checkers, thinktanks and counter-disinformation organisations. REDACT found that solutions must be tailored to countries and regions in order to tackle the root causes of their local conspiracy theories.
Funding for the counter-disinformation sector can be patchy, with many organisations conscious of the optics of who they take money from. For example, receiving money from governments could be seen to impact an organisation's impartiality. This means financial support can be inconsistent.
According to the research, the onus remains on individuals to act responsibly unless a stronger regulatory stance is introduced. In the UK specifically, the findings suggest that the Online Safety Act 2023 needs to go further than what it offers in its current form and could learn from the robustness of the EU Digital Services Act.
The UK's offering focuses on illegal and harmful content but does not explicitly address health misinformation, election-related disinformation, or AI-generated content, leaving significant gaps in tackling systemic risks. In contrast, the EU's act imposes broader obligations, including risk assessments, transparency for political advertising, and measures against disinformation and algorithmic manipulation.
While the latter is stymied by the threat of tariffs from the US, REDACT's research suggests that it can in theory hold very large platforms accountable and has rules on how platforms should moderate content, including disinformation.
Although less comprehensive than the EU's Digital Services Act, the UK legislation offers more protection than US equivalents. The UK also lacks a constitutional free speech clause, removing a legal shield often cited in the US to defend disinformation. Nonetheless, British libel laws are often viewed as favouring wealthy plaintiffs over journalists.
Professor Clare Birchall and Professor Peter Knight, Report on Conspiracy Theories in the Online Environment and the Counter-Disinformation Ecosystem in the UK
While regulation might be letting users down, the research shows that they care deeply about the information environment. Alongside and in response to conspiracist posts, many users took the time to counter the claims. Such posts offer caution to alarmist accounts of uncontested, untrammelled conspiracism online.
Despite there being no easy answer, the researchers recommend addressing the wider politically rooted problems that contribute to the growing prominence of conspiracies. The research argues in favour of resistance against the normalisation of conspiracy theories in political discourse and the use of clickbait headlines in the media.
These ideas are spreading in all parts of society. If we want to tackle the problem of conspiracy theories, it's not enough to turn off a particular pipeline, such as putting restrictions on a specific social media platform or shutting down someone's account. We need to think about structural problems in society as well as the business models of platforms. And instead of focusing on why people don't trust institutions and politicians, we should work on making them worthy of trust.
Professor Clare Birchall, Professor of Contemporary Culture
About REDACT
The Researching Europe, Digitalisation and Conspiracy Theories (REDACT) project analyses how digitalisation shapes the form, content and consequences of conspiracy theories. Rather than see digitalisation as a process that has universal outcomes, or conspiracy theories as the same over space and time, REDACT considers online conspiracy theories and counter-publics in different European regions (Western Europe, Central Europe, the Baltics, and the Balkans) in order to make robust and nuanced recommendations about conspiracy theories for policy makers, media regulators, fact-checking and extremism-monitoring organisations, as well as the internet companies themselves.
REDACT is a cross-university, cross-country project bringing together academics from King's College London; the University of Manchester; Tübingen University; Lund University; the Slovak Academy of Sciences; the University of Tartu; Riga Technical University; Singidunum University; University of Banja Luka; Comenius University; the University of Zagreb.
