A proactive new tool that can help preserve old forests in British Columbia has been developed by University of Alberta researchers.
A new study gives crucial insight into where to focus conservation measures, by identifying areas of old-growth forest in areas predicted to be stable in the face of climate change.
The approach laid out by the research shifts the focus toward what can still be protected, says Nick Pochailo, who led the study as part of his dual master's degree in forestry through the Faculty of Agricultural, Life & Environmental Sciences.
"Old-growth forests located in areas of potential climatic stability offer exceptional long-term conservation value. By identifying these places, land managers can prioritize and plan conservation efforts more effectively."
Defined as at least 140 to 250 years old in B.C., depending on the ecosystem, old-growth forests account for about 25 per cent of the province's forested areas. They've shrunk from 25 million hectares to about half that due to logging, as well as more severe and frequent wildfires, as well as pests like the mountain pine beetle, brought on by climate warming.
That makes strategic management and continuing conservation for old-growth areas increasingly important, says co-author Scott Nielsen, a professor of conservation biology who supervised the research.
"They provide vital habitat to certain wildlife, including at-risk or endangered species like mountain caribou and northern spotted owls, and they hold high cultural and recreational value for many people."
To get a better understanding of how climate change could affect these forests, the researchers used computer models to predict how these ecosystems might shift by the 2050s, then mapped the changes against existing and future old-growth forests to geographically pinpoint areas most likely to survive. From the analysis, they developed maps showing where this type of forest has the best chance of persisting, barring any disturbances such as logging or wildfires.
The analysis identified 110,545 square kilometres of old-growth forest that has the potential to increase naturally by up to an additional 69,410 square kilometres by 2055 if left undisturbed.
The study also showed that up to 54 per cent of the province — and up to 63 per cent of its existing old-growth forests — are located in regions that, by the 2050s, are expected to be within areas of climate stability, or "climate-change refugia."
However, the research also shows the vulnerability of these forests, Pochailo adds.
"Less than 12 per cent of B.C.'s current old growth is both protected and within climate refugia, with under 0.2 per cent located in areas of high refugia probability."
The blend of information can help identify new, high-priority areas for conservation, notes Leonardo Viliani, a PhD student in the conservation biology program and a co-author on the research.
"It helps close gaps with planning, land-use management, where to harvest and where the next protected areas should be."
The approach provided by the research could also help meet a federal pledge to preserve 30 per cent of Canada's land and oceans by 2030, Nielsen adds.
"It provides a tool for effective, data-driven conservation that can be extended to other old-growth forests here."
