Researchers have developed a tool that reliably predicts where destructive new roads are likely to carve through tropical forests, giving environmentalists and public health officials a head-start in identifying at-risk areas and potential disease outbreaks in humans.
James Cook University's Distinguished Research Professor Bill Laurance co-authored a paper describing how the new technique works. He said roads are strong and consistent predictors of deforestation, but many, legal and illegal, are absent from official maps.
"Earth is experiencing an unprecedented wave of road building, with some 25 million kilometres of new paved roads expected by mid-century. Roughly 90% of all road construction is occurring in developing nations including many tropical and subtropical regions of exceptional biodiversity," said Professor Laurance.
"Mapping studies in the Brazilian Amazon, Asia-Pacific and elsewhere are regularly finding up to 13 times more road length than reported in government or road databases."
He said the new tool draws from a vast dataset to identify key environmental factors driving road construction, offering a proactive way to spot emerging hotspots without relying on often incomplete or outdated maps.
"We found that road building is most strongly influenced by rainfall patterns, soil conditions, topography and proximity to rivers. After controlling for local socioeconomic and administrative contexts," Prof Laurance said.
"By pinpointing areas at high risk for road proliferation, the index enables better prediction of future deforestation frontiers, even in regions lacking basic road inventories."
He said the tool has broader applications beyond its use in environmental protection.
"Roads often serve as vectors for spreading human pathogens, and the index could help identify zones prone to zoonotic spillover - where diseases jump from animals to humans. It may also map potential invasion routes for exotic weeds and feral animals, which thrive along disturbed roadways," he said.
He said the tool could transform conservation strategies, allowing governments, NGOs and international bodies to intervene early in vulnerable tropical zones.
"As global infrastructure booms, such predictive insights are crucial for balancing development with forest preservation," said Professor Laurance.
Link to paper here.
