Major societal events such as the Brexit referendum and Covid-19 lockdowns have contributed to the UK's lasting deterioration in mental health, finds a study led by University College London (UCL) researchers.
The BMJ Mental Health paper, funded by Wellcome, looked at the mental health impacts of the referendum in 2016, the first and second lockdowns, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the UK Government's 2022 "mini-budget".
The researchers identified marked increases in psychological distress in the UK after these events, which impacted some groups more than others, and often worsened existing inequalities. These deteriorations in mental health persisted, rather than bouncing back, and contributed to the overall decline in mental health seen across the entire 2009 to 2024 study period.
Lead author Dr Annie Jeffery (UCL Psychiatry) said: "The nation's mental health has been getting worse in recent years, particularly for young people. There are multiple factors involved in this increase, and here we have found that major societal events have been among the causes of the mental health deterioration.
"The past decade or so has been tumultuous, shaped by multiple overlapping shocks and ongoing uncertainty and instability that have impacted mental health in Britain.
"We have shown that major government decisions and global current events can have substantial impacts on people's mental health."
The researchers looked at longitudinal survey data from 87,857 people who take part in Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study. They analysed annual changes in psychological distress – as measured by a questionnaire asking about common symptoms of depression and anxiety – experienced by the study participants from 2009 to 2024. Their analysis applied cutting-edge quasi-experimental methods to determine the impact that these events had on mental health patterns.
The research team found that psychological distress has been increasing in the UK since 2009 to a clinically significant degree, in line with evidence from other studies, and that this increase accelerated from 2015 onwards.
The researchers found that young people's mental health has been increasing more than any other age group throughout the study period, with increases seen among those aged 16-34 since at least 2010. In 2009, young people were the group with the lowest levels of psychological distress, but after the pandemic they had the highest levels.
Across the population, the researchers found there were immediate increases in psychological distress right after the Brexit referendum in 2016, and a larger increase after the first Covid-19 lockdown. While the mental health impact of the pandemic gradually diminished over time, the researchers found that psychological distress across the population had not returned to pre-pandemic levels by end of the study period in 2024.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which, besides being distressing in itself also caused a marked increase in household energy prices – and the 2022 "mini-budget" that drove up inflation and a further increase in the cost of living, there were gradual increases in distress in the months that followed.
These events did not impact all groups equally. The Covid-19 pandemic's impact was worse for women than for men. The Brexit referendum's mental health impact was worse for people living in more deprived areas. While the first Covid-19 lockdown initially had more of negative impact on those living in less deprived areas, this pattern was only temporary, and across the study period, people living in more deprived areas experienced the greatest burden of poor mental health.
People who are long-term sick or disabled had consistently worse-than-average distress, and experienced the largest increase (relative to other groups) after the Brexit referendum, and after the Ukraine invasion, supporting other evidence that this group has been particularly affected by the cost of living crisis.
Dr Annie Jeffery said: "We found that Britain's mental health did not bounce back after these major events; instead, the effects persisted, and sometimes intensified with cumulative impacts of successive adverse events."
Senior author Professor James Kirkbride (UCL Psychiatry) said: "From a policy perspective, we can anticipate that any political, social or economic shocks will have discernible impacts on population mental health. Our work shows that those already disadvantaged will bear the brunt of this, so ensuring that we put in place adequate mental health support systems in the neighbourhoods and communities likely to be hit hardest is something we can get ahead of to build more resilient populations.
"Economic shocks have a meaningful impact on the population's mental health, so investing in a mentally healthy, productive workforce, will pay off as an investment in social, economic and wellbeing outcomes for individuals, communities and populations."
The study authors note that they did not investigate the impacts of uplifting events; further research could investigate positive events such as the Olympics in 2012 or the introduction of policies reducing discrimination.
The study was conducted by researchers in UCL Psychiatry, UCL Statistical Science, Imperial College London and LSE.
