Most Germans fear a military conflict between Russia and a NATO member state and are in favor of increasing the size of the German armed forces and creating a European army. To this end, a majority want to increase defense spending and reduce social spending. This is shown by a survey conducted by the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Leipzig University.
A large majority of Germans (70%) consider their country's defense capabilities to be important. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of those surveyed fear a military conflict between Russia and a NATO member state. Nearly half (42%) are very concerned that such a conflict between Germany and Russia could occur on German territory.
Therefore, the research team asked about specific security policy measures. The measures that received the most support were increasing the size of the German armed forces (60%), stronger government intervention against hybrid attacks by Russia (58%) and a joint European army (55%). Relative majorities support the reintroduction of compulsory military service (49% in favor, 27% opposed) and compulsory community service, for example in civil protection (48% in favor, 21% opposed). However, there is no majority in favor of increasing military aid to Ukraine (27% in favor, 41% opposed). Around two-thirds (67%) would like to see closer cooperation between EU countries on defense and security policy.
"Overall, the results reflect a clear public appetite for reform aimed at strengthening Germany's defense capability and offer insights into which defense policies are likely to command majority support," says co-study head Prof. Sebastian Blesse from the Leipzig University.
A relaxation of the debt brake is controversial
How much money should Germany invest in defense? A large majority of respondents, 70 percent, are in favor of investing at least 3 percent of the gross domestic product. However, there is no absolute majority in favor of relaxing the debt brake for this purpose.
Should savings be made in other areas instead? The research team showed the survey participants how much of public spending is currently allocated to each area. They were then asked to indicate whether they wanted to increase or decrease the shares. 77 percent of respondents are in favor of increasing defense spending. There is also strong support for allocating more money to internal security and public order (85%) as well as education (83%). In contrast, 83 percent consider spending on social security, which currently accounts for the largest share, to be too high.
"Just a few years ago, allocating more funds to the military would not have been acceptable to the majority. We are witnessing a significant shift in Germans' attitudes toward security policy," said Philipp Lergetporer , co-head of the study and professor at the TUM Campus Heilbronn .
For the representative study, around 1,100 people aged 18 to 74 were surveyed between July and September 2025. The survey was conducted online by Bilendi.
Sebastian Blesse, Philipp Lergetporer, Clara Pache, Helen Zeidler. Gefahr im Verzug: Was die deutsche Bevölkerung über Russlands militärische Aggression und deutsche Sicherheitspolitik denkt . ifo Schnelldienst, 2026, 79, Nr. 1
Prof. Philipp Lergetporer ( TUM School of Management ) and Prof. Sebastian Blesse are affiliated researchers at the ifo Institute. The study is part of the research project „Politikgestaltung im Spannungsfeld zwischen wissenschaftlicher Evidenz und öffentlicher Meinung: Experimentelle Studien mit PolitikerInnen". It was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
