A host of positive "tipping points" can spark rapid nature recovery, a leading expert says.
Action to protect and restore nature must accelerate radically to meet global goals for 2030 and beyond.
Writing in the journal Nature Sustainability, Professor Tim Lenton says positive tipping points are key to achieving this.
He highlights potential tipping points – moments when a small change triggers a rapid, often irreversible transformation – in nature, human societies and areas where the two combine.
"The destruction and degradation of the natural world pose an existential threat," said Professor Lenton, of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.
"We are already crossing or approaching several dangerous ecological tipping points , including the dieback of warm-water coral reefs and the Amazon rainforest.
"But just as human activity can drive negative tipping, we can bring about positive tipping points to spark large-scale nature recovery."
While addressing climate change is vital for protecting nature, specific social and ecological tipping points can regenerate ecosystems, spread nature-positive activities, and reduce drivers of nature loss.
Many governments are signed up to international goals to regenerate nature – such as protecting 30% by 2030 – but progress is going far too slowly. Crucially, triggering positive tipping points can help achieve the necessary acceleration in progress.
Positive tipping points offer opportunities for businesses who are trying to work out how they can have a positive impact on nature, and for finance companies who are trying to identify investable opportunities in nature regeneration.
Professor Lenton identifies four key types of positive tipping point for nature:
- Ecosystem recovery: Numerous degraded ecosystems have been positively tipped into a regenerated state. For example, reintroduction of wolves in Yellowstone National Park in 1995-6 likely led to a positive tipping point of riverbank vegetation recovery, which in turn boosted the numbers of scavengers, songbirds, bison and beavers. In Pacific kelp forests, the removal of sea otters caused sea urchin populations to escalate and kelp to collapse. Sea otter recovery (or their reintroduction, for example in Alaska) tipped kelp forest recovery.
- Social-ecological systems: Effective management of shared resources can lead to positive tipping points. For example, in pelagic (open sea) fisheries, positive tipping can be triggered by enforcing a Maximum Sustainable Yield – the highest yield that can be taken without significantly affecting reproduction. This typically requires short-term reduction in fishing, with strong enforcement. This has produced positive tipping points for recovery of plaice and hake stocks in the North Sea. In coastal fisheries, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) can help positively tip fish stock recovery, by providing safe spawning areas and "spillover" of fish into the surrounding waters.
- Nature-positive initiatives: The social spread of nature-positive initiatives can also become "self-propelling" – an important feature of a tipping point. For example, the small-group tree planting initiative (TIST) originated in Tanzania and spread rapidly in Kenya and Uganda – and to India – aided by a structure designed to maximise autonomy and social learning, and by providing multiple benefits to adopters, including carbon payments. In another example, success on Apo Island inspired the spread of marine reserves in the Philippines via the "reinforcing feedback" of social learning.
- Consumption behaviour: Positive tipping points in patterns of consumption could reduce key drivers of nature loss. The most important driver of nature loss is agricultural expansion, primarily due to increased meat consumption. However, in several rich nations that overconsume meat, there have been significant recent reductions in meat consumption. Social norms and the quality, diversity and availability of meat-free options are key to enabling a positive tipping point. Professor Lenton also highlights strong "balancing feedbacks" that are opposing dietary change. For example, in the EU, four times as much farming subsidy goes into animal products as plant ones.
Professor Lenton said a key research opportunity is to test which current systems may be approaching a positive tipping point – potentially inspiring action to trigger it.
He identifies three levers that could enable multiple positive tipping points: facilitating online collective learning among groups taking nature-positive action, properly valuing nature in economics, and tipping worldviews to "ecocentrism".
On the latter, Professor Lenton said: "Changing the ethical and legal status of nature is a powerful practical step to underpin nature-positive action. Such a tipping point in paradigm could be the deepest leverage point for nature-positive system change."
The article is entitled: "Positive tipping points for nature."
