New models that predict the expected care needs of Covid-19 patients have enabled a more efficient medical care during the ongoing pandemic. Torbjörn Lundh and Philip Gerlee at the Department of Mathematical Sciences receive Chalmers Impact Award 2021.
- It feels absolutely fantastic, when I got the phone call I thought: is this even possible, considering that last year's awardees were also from Mathematical Sciences, says Torbjörn Lundh. Even if they only followed the criteria for the award, I think it was brave of the committee.
- Yes, and the motivation was of course very enjoyable to read for us, Philip Gerlee adds (see fact box).
It is now almost exactly 18 months since the World Health Organization stated that the corona virus outbreak had become a pandemic. A few days before that, the logisticians Ingrid Fritzell and Julia Karlsson, who work with the chief physician Thomas Brezicka at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, had contacted Philip Gerlee and asked for a meeting that same day. The time factor was important, the usual academic procedure would not be fast enough.
"What do you want?"
After a month Torbjörn and Philip wrote a debate article: All models are wrong - some are useful (in Swedish, Alla modeller är fel - några är användbara, Svenska Dagbladet April 22, 2020). There were many strong opinions about how Sweden handled the pandemic and they wanted to explain why one must be careful with complex models. The article was noticed by epidemiologists in Linköping and Lund, who wanted to collaborate. Clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers compared their research results, which among other things resulted in a project on how travel patters can predict hospital admissions.
Many possible indicators
During a second and third wave of infection, completely different models are needed than in the beginning. Among other things, Torbjörn and Philip are now trying to estimate the infectivity of novel virus variants. Basically it is evolutionary biology, which also is knowledge that they have. They are also trying to find more indicators that can contribute to the models. There are many possibilities, but unfortunately they are often stopped by legal obstacles. A pretty good indicator turned out to be calls to 1177, linked to certain diagnostic codes as cough. Mobility data was also useful, though it was much easier to obtain data from Västtrafik than from the mobile phone companies. Analyses of wastewater could perhaps give an even earlier signal.
- We have both previously worked together with clinicians and cell biologists, but epidemiologists were new to us and they had entirely different requirements when it came to what it means for a model to be useful and how model valuation is carried out. It has been very educational to get acquainted with the healthcare culture, for example working with such sensitive data that you only may use certain laptops for it. It is both useful and exciting to move across culture barriers.
In two weeks, Torbjörn and Philip will participate in a Nordic conference arranged by Nordforsk and the research network NordMathCovid. Many of the participating researchers are linked to their countries' public health authorities and make prediictions for them, and here possible future collaborations can be formed. They have also applied for money within the Swedish Research Council's call for emergency preparedness research, the reply is expected in December. The plan is to continue to evaluate all the different pandemic models that exist and see how to connect them with decision makers in the best possible way. With better use of surveillance models for spread of infections, there may be a toolbox ready to use before the next pandemic.
Text and photo: Setta Aspström
