Smart policies addressing road transport emissions could save 1.9 million lives and prevent 1.4 million new children's asthma cases worldwide by 2040, according to a new study.
This translates to preventing 310 premature deaths and 230 new children's asthma cases per day over the next 15 years, the research reveals.
The study, Global health benefits of policies to reduce on-road vehicle pollution through 2040, conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the George Washington University, and University of Colorado Boulder, provides a detailed analysis of how different policies could improve health outcomes across more than 180 countries and 13,000 urban areas.
The study assesses health impacts from various policy measures, including Euro 6/VI and Euro 7-equivalent emissions standards, an accelerated transition to electric vehicles, and accelerated fleet renewal.
The team, which drew on expertise from Cardiff University, also examined how combining these policies with clean electricity generation for electric vehicles would maximise benefits.
Key findings include:
- Road transport emissions are responsible for an estimated 252,000 new asthma cases in children in 2023, representing about one-fifth of all new asthma cases in children linked to nitrogen dioxide pollution. In the EU, road transport emissions are responsible for one-third of new asthma cases in children linked to nitrogen dioxide pollution.
- Without further policy action, health disparities across regions will widen significantly. The study projects premature deaths, years of life lost, and new asthma cases in children from road transport emissions will approximately double in the least developed countries from 2023-2040, while decreasing in the most developed countries.
- In Europe, with policies adopted as of 2023, premature deaths and years of life lost from road transport emissions are projected to decrease by 50%, with new asthma cases in children declining by 70% between 2023 and 2040. These projected reductions are thanks to key adopted legislation like the CO2 standards for cars and vans and Euro 6/VI and Euro 7 standards.
- Maintaining existing policies and adopting new policies in Europe to transition to electric vehicles, accelerate fleet turnover, and provide clean electricity for electric vehicles could lead to even larger health benefits. Compared to policies adopted as of 2023, a smart combination of policies could avoid 149,000 premature deaths and 64,000 new children's asthma cases in Europe through 2040.
"The projected decreases in health burdens from road transport emissions in Europe are remarkable, but they are not guaranteed," said Lingzhi Jin, lead author from ICCT.
"Securing these health benefits relies on maintaining and enforcing existing clean air policies, including the CO2 standards and Euro 7 standards for cars and vans and heavy-duty vehicles."
"Our analysis at kilometre-by-kilometre resolution gives us unprecedented insight into the real health burden of transportation pollution," explained Dr Omar Nawaz, one of the study's authors now a lecturer in climate change at Cardiff University.
Satellite data allows us to pinpoint how pollution hot spots overlap with where people actually live and reveals critical health impacts that would otherwise remain hidden.
The study reveals concerning disparities in health impacts across regions and age groups.
Children under 5 years old are projected to account for 50% of avoidable new asthma cases in children from NO2 exposure, while making up only 25% of that group. Similarly, adults aged 65 and older account for 70% of global avoidable years of life lost, while making up just 20% of the total adult population.
"Our research reveals an important opportunity to improve health for kids and adults by reducing harmful pollution in the air they breathe," said Dr Susan Anenberg, co-author and Professor at George Washington University.
"Vehicle tailpipe pollution contributes to asthma development in children and increases cardiovascular and respiratory risk among adults. We urgently need coordinated global action to ensure all communities, especially those most at risk, benefit from cleaner transportation."
The research also highlights the special vulnerability of urban populations to road transport-related air pollution. Urban areas account for approximately 70% of avoidable new children's asthma cases in Europe despite being home to only 40% of Europe's children.
"The evidence from this study is crystal clear: implementing a strategic combination of emission standards, electric vehicle policies, accelerated fleet renewal, and clean electricity generation will save nearly 2 million lives globally over the next 15 years", said Sheila Watson, Deputy Director of FIA Foundation, a co-funder of the work.
"Policymakers must act on this evidence now in order to protect public health. This isn't just about environmental protection-it's also about saving lives and improving children's health on a massive scale."
