As Europe increases its reliance on solar energy to meet climate and energy security targets, a growing atmospheric phenomenon is complicating the path forward: Saharan dust. New research presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU25) shows that mineral dust carried on the wind from North Africa is not only reducing photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation across Europe but also making it harder to predict. In their presentation at EGU25, The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe's dusty skies, Dr. György Varga and collaborators from Hungarian and European institutions reveal how dust-laden skies disrupt PV performance and challenge existing forecasting models. Their work, grounded in field data from more than 46 Saharan dust events between 2019 and 2023, spans both Central Europe (Hungary) and Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece).
The Sahara releases billions of tonnes of fine dust into the atmosphere every year, and tens of millions of tonnes reach European skies. These particles scatter and absorb sunlight, reduce irradiance at the surface, and can even promote cloud formation — all of which degrade PV output. The researchers found that conventional forecasting tools, which use static aerosol climatologies, frequently miss the mark during these events. Instead, the team recommends integrating near-real-time dust load data and aerosol-cloud coupling into forecasting models. This would allow for more reliable scheduling of solar energy and better preparedness for the variability introduced by atmospheric dust.
"There's a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors," says Varga.
"Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix."
Beyond atmospheric effects, the team also points out to the long-term impacts of dust on the physical infrastructure of solar panels, including contamination and erosion — factors that can further reduce efficiency and increase maintenance costs. This research contributes to ongoing efforts in Hungary and the EU to improve climate resilience and renewable energy management. It is supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (FK138692), the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the EU-funded National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change.
Note to the media
When reporting on this story, please mention the EGU General Assembly 2025, which is taking place from 27 April – 02 May 2025.
This paper will be presented in full CL4.14 session at EGU25 on Friday, Friday, 02 May, 10:59–11:01 (CEST) . If reporting online, please include a link to the abstract: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-9264.html
