Students whose performance at school declines relative to their peers are at a higher risk of contact with the criminal justice system, a new study by King's College London has found.
The study, one of the largest of its kind and published today in the Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, looked at 4.3 million pupils in England born between 1990 and 1997. The study found changing school performance associated with later first-time offending, pinpointing this as an opportunity for intervention.
Researchers found that pupils whose school performance declined relative to their peers between Year 2 and Year 11 were at higher risk of getting involved in the criminal justice system.
Dr Alice Wickersham, Research Fellow at King's College London and Research Fellow at ADR UK (Administrative Data Research UK), said, "What we've found are "signals" in routinely collected school records that help us identify when pupils might need support. If we treat school performance as a measure of not just academic ability, but also as an indicator of pupils' wider circumstances, we could find windows of opportunity to notice early when pupils are struggling and offer them appropriate support. This might not just be at school – pupils could be facing a range of difficulties, like with their mental health, their home life, and their friendships. Supporting them more proactively could positively impact their own lives and benefit society more widely."
The researchers obtained school performance data from the National Pupil Database (NPD), and crime data from the Police National Computer (PNC).
Pupil school performance was measured through statutory tests done at ages 7, 11 and 16. Pupils were divided into 5 groups according to how they performed in these tests: Average Consistent (generally performed at or above average throughout), Average/High Increasing (generally performed around average in Year 2, but performed above average by Year 11), Average Declining (generally performed around average in Year 2, but performed below average by Year 11), Low Increasing (generally performed below average in Year 2, but reached average levels by Year 11), and Low Consistent (generally performed below average throughout).
For contact with the criminal justice system, researchers looked at the PNC for records of first convictions or cautions received at two different time points – before the end of secondary school, and during young adulthood (after leaving school, up to and including age 21). All offence types were considered, including serious violence.
In total, around 8.8% of the pupils (369,557) were first convicted or cautioned before the end of Year 11, and 5.0% (210,936) were first convicted or cautioned in young adulthood. But within this, the researchers found that offending risk varied according to school performance trajectories.
Among pupils who showed declines in their school performance relative to their peers, 1 in 3 received a first offence conviction or caution before the end of secondary school, and 1 in 10 received a first offence conviction or caution during young adulthood.
Pupils who performed consistently below average were also at higher risk of offending, although not as much as the group showing relative declines. Notably, among pupils who performed at below average levels towards the beginning of school, their odds of offending during young adulthood were 53% higher if their relative performance remained low, but only 4% higher if their relative performance improved.
Stephen Scott, Professor of Child Health and Behaviour at King's College London and co-author of the study, pointed out, "Early intervention through parenting groups up to the age of 12 has powerful and long-lasting effects in reducing the antisocial behaviour that precedes criminality and also boosts academic attainment in disadvantaged populations. Moreover, with new evidence on the effectiveness of online parenting programmes, these could be disseminated widely."
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About King's College London and King's Maudsley Partnership
King's College London is amongst the top 40 universities in the world and 6th best in the UK (QS World University Rankings 2026), and one of England's oldest and most prestigious universities. With an outstanding reputation for world-class teaching and cutting-edge research, King's maintained its sixth position for 'research power' in the UK (2021 Research Excellence Framework).
King's has more than 42,000 students (including more than 12,800 postgraduates) from some 190 countries worldwide, and 8,500 staff.
For almost 200 years, King's has been a place where ideas turn into action. From revealing the structure of DNA to reimagining nursing, from advances in medicine, law and the study of war and peace to shaping culture and public debate, our work has always been guided by a belief that knowledge should serve society. Over our history, King's has been home to 14 Nobel Prize winners, and to scholars whose ideas and leadership have shaped thinking, policy and practice around the world. King's has always been a place where knowledge is put to work for the benefit of others. Visit the website to find out how we are taking that purpose forward through Strategy 2030. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/about/strategy
The King's Maudsley Partnership for Children and Young People is a clinical and academic collaboration between South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London and is supported by the Maudsley Charity. The Partnership aims to transform our understanding and treatment of young people's mental health, working in close collaboration to find new ways to predict, prevent and treat mental health disorders at home in London and around the world. The Partnership is based at the Pears Maudsley Centre for Children and Young People in Denmark Hill. https://kingsmaudsley.org/
About ADR UK
ADR UK (Administrative Data Research UK), ESRC's flagship data-sharing partnership, enables secure access to linked UK public sector data for researchers. From crime and justice to education, the economy, and health, this UK-wide partnership is transforming data into research insights and policy evidence to improve lives.
