Floods, wildfires, conflicts, earthquakes, economic shocks, hurricanes or epidemics; these unexpected and often dramatic events impact people's lives and jobs, destroy crops, wipe out livestock and stored food, contaminate water, block roads, cut off communities and severely affect their access to markets and food. This picture is certainly a very distressing one—one that is expected to get much worse in the near future due to climate change and an increasingly polarized world. Yet, science says: No, these natural and human-made shocks do not have to lead to more hunger by default.
A new study, published in the prestigious scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), challenges our natural human tendency to think that everything will necessarily get worse after a shock. Instead, the study presents compelling empirical evidence that it is possible to break the link between shocks and food insecurity. The key element for this is RESILIENCE. In simple terms, resilience means the ability of people, communities, ecosystems (and food systems in this particular case study) to withstand disturbance and to continue functioning despite disasters and shocks.
Using a large set of data from several dozen of countries from all over the world, recorded over more than 10 years, the team of international researchers who conducted the study shows that what matters in the face of disasters is not simply how developed a country is or how often it is affected by shocks or disasters (or how severe these are), but perhaps more importantly how prepared and how much resilience capacities that country has built. They found for instance several examples of countries—particularly in Asia—that show improving trends in food security despite being more severely affected by disasters than the rest of the world.
"In the context of increasing shocks and disasters (climate change, conflicts, pandemic), those findings are important – they demonstrate that food crises are not ineluctable and that suffering can be avoid, if countries and in particular their food systems are sufficiently prepared." - Chris Béné, lead-author.
To understand what shapes countries' ability to maintain food security amid crises and disasters, those researchers studied countries with different income levels and analyzed factors such as the severity of the shocks, the capacities of the countries' governments, the levels of infrastructures but also economic and social cohesion, and importantly the characteristics of their food systems.
The findings offer important insights for governments seeking to strengthen national preparedness and food security in the face of increasing shocks. Although every country is unique, some general principles emerge. In particular, the study found that having multiple ways to obtain food clearly helps reducing risks of crises. Likewise, government effectiveness (that is, how well public and civil services function) as well as greater capabilities and better access to new technologies and financial markets are critical. Finally, social capital (community networks, social connections and relationships) also appears important in the long-run.
"To strengthen resilient food systems, the government, development agencies and financial institutions shall prioritise the reinforcement of government capacities to anticipate and respond better to shocks and disasters, the promotion of diversity and redundancy in food systems - and not just efficiency or just-in-time food chains- and the investments on human capabilities at household and community level to protect nutrition and household assets." - Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol, co-author.
Thus, amid the increasing number of tragic stories happening around the world, this study stands as a voice of hope. It shows that, although many of these disasters cannot be predicted, their impacts can be reduced. And science is helping us understand how.
