Food systems make up roughly 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions globally. But transforming them could cut these emissions by more than half, according to a report released Oct. 3 from a commission of global experts from more than 35 countries across six continents.
A team of Cornell researchers led the modeling section of the Report on Healthy, Sustainable and Just Food Systems, by the EAT-Lancet Commission. The report presents the most comprehensive global scientific evaluation of food systems and how they affect climate change to date. The Cornell team ran model simulations to explore how food systems could look by 2050.
The research reveals that food systems have the greatest negative effect on five of nine critical global processes - known in the climate change field as "planetary boundaries" - that regulate the Earth's stability and resilience.
"Collaborations like EAT-Lancet are vital to imagining and advancing a more sustainable future," said Mario Herrero, professor of global development in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS) and a Cornell Atkinson Scholar. "Playing a leadership role in this international network allows Cornell researchers to both contribute to and learn from the diverse expertise driving food systems transformation."
The research also found more than half of the world's population struggles to access healthy diets, and that shifting diets could prevent up to 15 million premature deaths per year. Meanwhile, the wealthiest 30% of people drive more than 70% of food-related environmental impacts, and although there's enough food to feed the world, more than 1 billion people remain undernourished.
To overcome these challenges, the report outlines eight potential solutions. They include reducing food loss and waste, implementing sustainable agriculture practices, protecting traditional healthy diets, and halting the conversion of intact ecosystems to agriculture.
Herrero, who served as an executive committee member and commissioner on the report, and his team modeled a range of scenarios to assess the potential effects of current and future food systems on the nine planetary boundaries.
The modeling suggests that a food system transformation can substantially reduce environmental pressure along all food-related planetary boundaries, according to Daniel Mason-D'Croz, senior research associate in CALS and lead for the modeling team.
"But if dietary change is not accompanied by improvements such as increased agricultural productivity and reduced food loss, it won't get us environmentally sustainable food systems," Mason-D'Croz said. "Future work will now need to focus on developing roadmaps for achieving more sustainable futures."
The report shows that changes to the way humans produce and consume food can improve global health, achieve food and nutrition security, build stability and resilience, and contribute to critical strategies to improve equity and working conditions in food systems by 2050.
"This research provides crucial insights that help policymakers, governments, and corporations make informed decisions, while also enabling individuals to understand the implications of their diets and our food systems," said Patrick Beary, the Bruce H. Bailey Senior Director of Strategic Partnerships at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability.
Housed in Food Systems & Global Change research group in the Department of Global Development (CALS), the Cornell research team also included postdoctoral scholars Thais Diniz Oliveira, Matthew Gibson and Marina Sundiang; Ramya Ambikapathi, former research associate; and Hannah van Zanten, visiting professor in the Department of Global Development. Background papers supporting this research will be published in October in The Lancet Planetary Health Journal.
Cornell's contributions to the report were funded by Cornell Atkinson, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the CGIAR Foresight Initiative. The EAT-Lancet report was funded by the IKEA Foundation, The Rockefeller Foundation, Wellcome Trust, The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Kelly Merchan is the director of marketing and communications for the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability.
