Too Many Men, Too Few Women

Finland: Increased risk of childlessness in an unbalanced partner market

• Childlessness in Finland: More men than women are remaining childless, with 29 percent of men and 21 percent of women childless in Finland. This issue is becoming significant as many people delay starting families.

• Study Findings: Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research found that regional partner markets significantly influence childlessness among men. Areas with fewer female partners lead to higher rates of childlessness.

• Impact of Education: Less educated men are more likely to be childless, as a secure income is essential for attracting partners, especially in imbalanced markets. This trend shows increasing disadvantages for lower-educated men.

Childlessness is becoming an increasingly important issue as birth trends are characterized by the postponement of starting a family and an increase in childless couples. The proportion of childless men is higher than that of women almost everywhere. In Finland, for example, the difference is particularly large: 29 percent of men, but only 21 percent of women, remain childless. The gender-specific difference in childlessness has received little attention to date. One possible explanation for this could be unbalanced partner markets. Henrik-Alexander Schubert and Christian Dudel, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), examined the influence of regional partner markets on childlessness among men in a recent study.

The researchers evaluated Finnish register data from 1989 to 2019 at the municipal level using logistic regression models. This was the first time the data was examined at the individual level. The partner market is defined at the municipal level and includes Finnish men and women aged 18 to 49 who are classified by place of residence, education level, and age.

Childlessness is more prevalent among less educated men. "There are signs of increasing disadvantage for men with lower educational attainment," says Schubert. "One potential explanation for this could be that a secure income is important to attract potential partners, which becomes even more relevant in imbalanced partner markets."

Additionally, the probability of remaining childless increases in areas with a surplus of men. "About 0.587 percentage points of childlessness among men can be attributed to the fact that fewer female partners are available in certain regions. That may not sound like much at first, but we are talking about several thousands of individuals in a small country, whose family situation depends on the structural context, e.g. the partner market. Our results are stable. The availability of female partners in a region is an important reason for fertility among men in Finland," Schubert explains.

Unfavorable partner markets may help explain trends in family formation in the Nordic countries. Changes in these markets contribute to increasing childlessness and growing differences in childlessness between higher- and lower-educated men. They also contribute to the widening gap between male and female childlessness.

The group of childless men is growing in Western populations. "This group may face a triple disadvantage in the future: familial, socioeconomic, and geographic. They will depend on affordable professional care services because they cannot afford private services and do not have many relatives who could care for them in old age or in case of illness. Politicians and society must prepare for this," says the researcher.

Henrik Schubert received the Julia Mead Knox Memorial Prize