Author
- Michelle Grattan
Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
The Albanese government remains in complicated territory on the international stage. It has to tread carefully with China, despite the marked warming of the bilateral relationship. It is yet to find its line and length with the unpredictable Trump administration.
Meanwhile, with the new parliament meeting for the first time next week, the federal Opposition remains in a tough spot, still reeling from a brutal election defeat. The Liberals have an untested leader and uncertainty over what policies they will keep and which they will scrap, with their future commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 yet to be reconfirmed.
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has personally navigated the highs and lows of these issues, and joins the podcast today.
On AUKUS and national security, Turnbull says the debate has "never been dumber".
The fundamental problem with our debate about national security is a profound lack of patriotism, because not enough people are putting Australia first. I mean I'm not saying that our politicians should be like Donald Trump, in terms of his bravado and braggadocio - you know all that sort of stuff he goes on with - but they should be like Trump in the sense of putting Australia first.
You know Donald Trump expects other countries to stand for themselves. Who is the foreign leader that is an ally that he respects the most? [Israel's Prime Minister] Bibi Netanyahu. Bibi Netanyahu stands up for himself and brutally. And brutally. I mean, Netanyahu's attitude is, if you're in the Middle East, if you're weak, you're roadkill.
On defence spending, Turnbull calls a proper review on what Australia needs, rather then spending a certain percent on defence.
We've got to have a proper examination of what capabilities we need, and what capabilities we can afford. The point about submarines is, if you're going have a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines - they're literally the most expensive defence platforms in the world - then you've got to work out what else you need and then what that's going to cost you. That will come to quite a lot more than [the current] 2% of GDP, I would estimate.
Turnbull also warns of a "reckless" degree of "delusion" in Canberra about the risk of not getting nuclear-powered submarines from the US.
On global affairs, Turnbull says the Albanese government has performed well in a time of uncertainty.
It's complicated, but they're managing this disrupted global environment well. The directions they're going in are correct. The need plainly is to strengthen partnerships, alliances, relations with countries other than the United States.
[…] There's a degree of anxiety about China because we don't share the same political values. It clearly wants to displace the United States as the hegemon in this region […] I think the government and certainly most Australians would recognise that the days of American primacy in this region are over and the outcome for us that we want to have is, as [a former Japanese prime minister] Shinzo Abe used to say, a free and open Indo-Pacific, a balance between the two powers. Indeed as [Foreign Minister] Penny Wong said, a region where no one dominates, nobody is dominated.
On Albanese's failure to meet yet with the US president, Turnbull says it doesn't matter "a huge amount".
It is very important for the prime minister of Australia to have a good personal relationship with Donald Trump. It really is. When I was prime minister, my relationship with him got off to a very stormy start, but it was a very good one, because by standing up to his bullying, I won his respect.
[…] When he does meet with Trump, it's got to be in a situation where he can have an extended discussion, where it's a substantive meeting and they can really get to know each other. So I think it's not just the timing of the meeting, but the quality of the meeting.
On the Liberal Party, Turnbull is pessimistic about its chances of moderating its views, even with Sussan Ley, generally regarded as centrist, as leader,
[Ley's] problem, even if she was centrist, and even if was genuine about moving the party back to the centre, I would question whether she can do it. Because there are not many moderates left in the party room in Canberra. How many moderates are left in the branches anymore? Has there been a sort of self-sorting now? Essentially the party […] has moved off into that right wing.
[…] The leader has a lot of authority. However, there is the right wing of the party and you cannot separate it from the right-wing media. From the Murdoch media in particular, they're joined at the hip. I mean, they're almost the same thing. They operate in the context of the Liberal Party almost like terrorists. Or like terrorists in this sense: they don't kill people or blow things up, but they basically are prepared to burn the joint down if they don't get what they want. I mean, I experienced that.
Despite reservations, Turnbull says quotas for women are the only way to the Liberal party to where it wants to be.
Everything else has been tried and it's failed […] My view is that the party has got to say, well, we recognise this is contrary to grassroots tradition. But unless we do something fairly draconian and directive, then we're not going to be able to get to the parity of men and women that we want, that we've said we wanted for years, and which the electorate clearly prefers.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
