Western Australia is on track to add half a million people within a decade, with the State's population projected to reach 3.5 million by 2033 and 4 million by 2043 - but new analysis warns housing supply will determine whether that growth strengthens or strains the economy.
The latest report by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Every Person Counts: Planning for Western Australia's Future Population, finds population growth in WA is economically driven, cyclical and highly responsive to iron ore prices, mining investment and labour market demand.
The report - which recommends targeted reforms, including a dedicated migration strategy, shows WA's population is forecast to hit 3.5 million within the next decade after reaching 3 million in December 2024, placing the State on a trajectory towards 4 million residents by 2043.
Report lead author Professor Alan Duncan finds migration remains a fundamental driver of this growth, with research indicating net interstate migration and net overseas migration respond strongly to labour demand, investment cycles and relative economic opportunity.
Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Director Professor Alan Duncan said Western Australia's migration patterns historically followed the rhythm of the resources economy closely.
"Movements in iron ore prices and mining investment shape labour demand and wages, and those signals translate into migration flows with a clear and measurable lag of around 12 to 18 months," Professor Duncan said.
"When we explicitly incorporate those economic drivers into population modelling, forecasting becomes far more predictable and relevant for decision-makers to be able to fend off the economic strain caused by rapid population growth.
"A sustained lift in mining investment intensity could add around 60,000 people to WA's population by 2039, and a 10 per cent increase in iron ore prices would add around 40,000."
The report finds migration has materially strengthened WA's economic prosperity over the past two decades, underpinning labour supply, industry expansion and fiscal capacity.
"Interstate and overseas migration have been critical drivers of economic growth in Western Australia and a lifeline for sustaining regional areas of the state, Professor Duncan said.
"Migration has materially improved the state's economic prosperity."
The largest interstate inflows come from Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. And as WA's project pipeline expands to include AUKUS, Westport and other large-scale projects, competition for skilled labour is expected to intensify, with the 2032 Brisbane Olympics on the east coast also requiring large amounts of skilled labour.
Despite the growing need for skilled labour to fuel economic growth, the report identifies housing supply as a binding constraint on sustainable growth.
Professor Duncan said migration responds not only to economic opportunity, but also to the availability and timing of dwelling completions.
"When housing supply lags behind labour demand and migration inflows, pressure builds quickly in rental markets, construction costs and labour mobility," Professor Duncan said.
"Housing is now functioning as economic infrastructure. Without sufficient completions, migration slows and growth potential is curtailed."
The modelling shows a sustained 10 per cent increase in dwelling completions generates measurable increases in both interstate and overseas migration over time, reinforcing the two-way relationship between housing capacity and population growth.
Population change is also uneven across the State. Greater Perth accounts for 80.6 per cent of WA's population - about 2.45 million people - and grew by 2.4 per cent over the past year, double the 1.2 per cent growth rate recorded across regional WA.
Migration remains critical to sustaining regional communities, where it underpins essential workforce capacity and service viability.
The report also highlights significant shifts within WA's Indigenous population, which has grown from around 99,000 in 2011 to approximately 130,000 currently and is projected to reach 143,000 by 2031.
Younger cohorts are increasingly concentrated in Perth and the south-west growth corridor, while many remote communities are ageing, requiring place-based housing, employment and culturally appropriate service strategies.
Professor Duncan said the key message for policymakers was that population growth was neither automatic nor inevitable.
"Population change in Western Australia is economically driven and largely predictable," he said.
"If governments embed leading indicators, such as commodity prices, visa transitions, housing commencements and labour market signals into planning frameworks, they can anticipate growth rather than react to it.
"Every person counts, but planning must account for the pace, composition and geography of that growth."
Policy recommendations
The report calls for targeted policy reforms to support Western Australia through population change, including establishing a WA Population and Migration Strategy that considers population composition, not just size, to shift from reactive planning to ensure the State is positioned to capitalise on the economic windfalls of population growth. Shifting the focus to treat housing supply as economic infrastructure and building a population early warning system to align infrastructure with growth-shaping objectives was put forward.
The report also recommends adopting a place-based Indigenous population and services framework that embeds Indigenous knowledge into population planning and service design.
ENDS.
Recommendations include:
Establish a Western Australia Population and Migration Strategy;
Strengthen migration instruments for regional outcomes;
Adopt a place-based Indigenous population and services framework;
Embed Indigenous knowledge into population planning and service design;
Plan for population composition, not just population size;
Shift from reactive planning to scenario based planning;
Build a population early warning system;
Treat housing supply as economic infrastructure;
Align infrastructure with growth shaping objectives;
Deliver coordinated regional growth packages;
Recognise workforce development as population policy;
Address the fiscal timing gap of population growth;
Recognise structural cost differences in regional and remote areas;
Create a Population Innovation and Evidence Lab.
Background:
The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within the Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 through the generous support of Bankwest, a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
