29 June 2023
To make the transformation of the German heating sector a success, broad societal support is required. As part of the ExtrA project, Jülich scientists are now investigating the impact of extreme events on the acceptance of sustainable heating technologies. In the following interview, project coordinator Dr. Gerrit Stöckigt speaks about the background to the project and the project goals.
Roughly one third of CO2 emissions in Germany are caused by buildings. The shift to heating systems that can be powered by renewable energies instead of fossil has therefore long been regarded as a key component of climate protection. In addition, the war in Ukraine has led to an urgent search for alternatives to Russian natural gas. But the planned transformation of the heating sector is dividing society. This is because sustainable heating technologies are sometimes significantly more expensive than natural gas and crude oil used to be, and may involve major changes for those affected. At the same time, it is clear that without broad social acceptance transition of the heating sector is difficult to achieve.
As part of the ExtrA project (ExtrA stands for "Grassroots movement in the energy transition: The role of extreme events for the social acceptance of sustainable heat supply"), Jülich scientists have partnered with TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, and Aachen University of Applied Sciences to investigate how such extreme events affect and durably change the social acceptance of sustainable heat supply options. In an interview, project coordinator Dr. Gerrit Stöckigt from Jülich's Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE) speaks about the background to the project and the project goals.
Dr. Stöckigt, what exactly is the ExtrA project about?
In the ExtrA project, we are studying how extreme events affect attitudes towards different heat supply options. In particular, we aim to find out whether and to what extent such events change the acceptance of heating systems run on renewable energy. This is not just about the war in Ukraine, but about extreme events in general. The war in Ukraine is of course a highly topical example but natural disasters and accidents can also lead to a change in public attitude. This was demonstrated, for example, by the 2011 Fukushima accident. Another example are the heatwaves in recent years, which - together with the increasingly severe storms and floodings - have made climate change noticeable. As part of ExtrA, we will investigate whether such extreme events affect long-term personal decisions as the one relating to the heating technology chosen.
What was the motivation for this project?
The transformation of the heating sector has long been part of our research at IEK-STE. This specific project was motivated by the Russian attack and the subsequent political development. The public has realized how dependent we are on Russian energy carriers. As a result, alternatives were sought and agreements were concluded with states such as Qatar that are problematic from a human rights perspective. Terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Canada have been built but this is associated with fracking, which in turn is controversial from an ecological standpoint. At the same time, we exclude the use of this technology in Germany. All options - including heat pumps, solar thermal energy, local and district heating, as well as heating systems using wood pellets, fuel cells, and, of course, oil - have their advantages and disadvantages, which can be very complex to weigh up because different factors are relevant depending on the type of production, importing country, etc. And all of these factors that may be relevant for making decisions - such as the carbon footprint, local environmental damage, human rights issues, energy security, but also installation and operating costs as well as individual views, and many others - can lead to completely different attitudes and acceptances. We think this is worth being scientifically studied.
To what extent are the findings practically relevant?
In the end, there will be a web tool that can be used to model scenarios. It will show the preferences for the different options when the importance of each factor changes. This tool can help policymakers estimate the level of acceptance for different options. At the same time, it will show citizens the consequences associated with different types of heat supply. We aim to use the web tool to provide comprehensive information on ecological, social, and economic factors, and to increase public awareness of them.
When can the first results be expected? What is the schedule?
Our project partners at TU Bergakademie Freiberg have already started to summarize the implications of the various heat supply options. Starting in autumn, we at IEK-STE will design a corresponding survey based on this, which will be conducted twice - at the turn of this year and again one year later. This means that in spring 2024, we will already be able to use the findings from the first survey, which will then be incorporated into citizens' dialogues conducted by Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon. At the same time, Aachen University of Applied Sciences will work on creating an interactive web tool. The project will run until March 2026.
Interview: Tobias Schlößer
