Professor Gerhard Adrian (Germany) has been honored for his outstanding contributions to meteorology at a ceremony celebrating the World Meteorological Organization's top prize . /media/news/prof-gerhard-adrian-named-imo-prize-winner
The vast advances of numerical weather forecasting over the past five decades have exceeded all expectations, leading to improved warnings and services to society and laying the base for future progress in an era of Artificial Intelligence, says Prof. Gerhard Adrian, the winner of the World Meteorological Organization's top award.
The quality of forecasts over a range of one week today is as good as the forecast over a range of one day 50 years ago, said Gerhard Adrian, former President of the German Weather Service (DWD) and past President of WMO.
"I never expected such a progress in weather forecasting I have experienced up to day," he said in his lecture at the IMO Award ceremony. He recalled that when he finished university in 1975, the scientific question was whether weather forecasts beyond day two were possible.
"The question was positively answered," he said in his presentation entitled "Following 50 Years of the Evolution of Numerical Weather Prediction from my personal perspective."
The IMO Prize (named after WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization) is the equivalent of a Nobel prize for meteorologists and honors outstanding work in meteorology and hydrology and contributions to international collaboration. It was established in 1955 and symbolizes the advancements that have been made in meteorology over the years.
"It is not just a medal or a title. The IMO Prize is the recognition of a lifetime of dedication," said WMO President Dr Abdulla Al Mandous. "It is a reaffirmation of the ideals that guide our work: scientific integrity, multilateral cooperation, and service to society," he said.
"Each laureate of this prize reminds us that science, when practiced with purpose and humility, can be a unifying force. Gerhard's name will now stand alongside those who have laid the very foundations of modern meteorology. And through this award, we reaffirm our collective aspiration to advance science in the service of humanity," said Dr Al Mandous.
A legacy built on trust
Gerhard Adrian was President of DWD from 2010 to 2023 and was WMO President from 2019 to 2023. He was also President of the Council of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Chair of Policy Advisory Committee of the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).
"If I had to choose one word to describe Gerhard's legacy, it would be trust," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
"Trust that stems from knowledge-solid, extensive, always precise. Trust that comes from a leader who listens carefully, speaks with intention, and brings people together.
"And above all, trust that comes from someone who has always cared deeply-for our Members, for the Secretariat, and for the future of our Organization," she said.
She recalled that one of the pivotal moments of his WMO Presidency was the extraordinary session of the World Meteorological Congress in 2021.
"Gerhard stood at the helm and strategically guided the approval of the WMO Unified Data Policy. This was not only a milestone for the WMO-it was a bold step forward for the global scientific community. Gerhard's clarity and unwavering commitment to open access helped transformed a long-held vision into reality," she said.
"This was at a time when we were grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. His diplomacy was crucial at an online event which offered no chance for corridor discussions and networking."
Advances in numerical weather prediction
As President of the German Weather Service, DWD, Gerhard Adrian was a figurehead for operational and scientific advancement. He fostered the integration of research and operations, prioritized climate services, and championed innovation-while never losing sight of the human dimension of our work. As a result, DWD is a role model for excellence and for regional and global cooperation.
In his lecture, Gerhard Adrian recalled the many different developments in numerical weather prediction over the decades and challenges posed by severe weather systems due to deep convection.
DWD was a founder member of COSMO, short for the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling - a collaboration of national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) and their research partners which also benefited NMHSs in developing countries.
Its Global Model Extension (GME) provided worldwide forecasts by solving the full set of atmospheric equations on a global scale. The Local Model was a regional (limited-area) model, focussing on high-resolution, small-scale weather forecasts over limited geographic areas (e.g. Central Europe) and can simulate small-scale phenomena like convective storms or mountain weather.
These were subsequently replaced by the ICON model, which is unified atmospheric modeling system which combines global and regional weather prediction capabilities into a single, integrated system.
The ICON modelling framework has been developed to a unified system for very different global and limited area applications for weather forecasting and climate prediction in DWD as well in the COSMO consortium, for research applications in climate, atmospheric dynamics on all scales, air chemistry, carbon cycle, or air pollution modelling.
Artificial Intelligence has advanced at such rapid speed in the past two years that DWD currently has a pre-operational AI-based model which is due to become operational later this year, said Prof. Adrian.
