Today marks one year since the Australian government released its National Climate Risk Assessment and the National Adaptation Plan .
Author
- Andrew B. Watkins
Adjunct Professor (Practice) in the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University
These documents were the federal government's first attempt to identify what is at risk from climate change and how we can adapt to its impacts. The assessment identified 63 nationally significant climate risks - such as risks to the financial system and surging disaster recovery costs - across all sectors and regions.
It came after several other countries - including the United Kingdom , United States , Canada and New Zealand - conducted similar but legislated climate risk assessments.
The Australian Climate Service was provided with A$22.9 million to complete the National Climate Risk Assessment over two years. More than 250 climate risk experts and authors worked on it, producing more than 70 documents detailing the most urgent threats to our nation.
However, the final report was delivered months later than expected. And in the 12 months since its release, Australia has taken little concrete action to address these urgent climate-related risks.
Weather on a warming planet
In 2025, despite the arrival of a La Niña weather pattern that typically reduces global temperatures, the world experienced its third hottest year on record.
Australia also endured its fourth warmest year ever and its hottest ocean temperatures on record. This brought extreme heat during the 2025-26 " whiplash summer ", where flash floods were quickly followed by devastating bushfires that claimed one life and engulfed more than 500 properties - the worst damage since the 2019-20 Black Summer .
Globally, the northern 2026 summer saw deadly heatwaves and wildfires ravage parts of Europe and the US. Glacial melting may have contributed to the catastrophic Nepal-Tibet floods. And the United Nations announced the world was on track to overshoot the critical limit of 1.5°C global warming, with a best case scenario of hitting 1.8ºC by the century's end.
What the report found
The National Climate Risk Assessment identified 63 nationally significant climate risks across eight key areas, ranging from the economy to defence to the natural environment. It also assessed 11 " priority risks " at four levels of global warming, including the current climate and scenarios of 1.5ºC, 2ºC and 3ºC warming above pre-industrial temperatures.
The report, as our research team noted when it was released, paints a grim picture in which every community in Australia will face the increasing and compounding consequences of climate change. This will almost certainly come in the form of more extreme weather, rather than a smooth transition to a new climate.
Specifically, the report found:
the financial cost of extreme weather in Australia has already tripled over the past three decades, with disaster recovery spending forecast to surge by seven times by 2090
deaths from heatwaves alone could quadruple in some capital cities at 3°C of global warming, while floods, bushfires, poor air quality and communicable diseases will become significant health risks
coastal impacts could affect 1.5 million people by 2050 and three million people by 2090, while some remote communities may be forced to relocate due to extreme heat or sea level rise
up to 70% of native plant species could be enduring conditions outside their current climate range by 2050, potentially leading to extinction and ecosystem collapse. Coral reefs are most vulnerable due to worsening marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
Dealing with delays
The National Climate Risk Assessment was set to be released in 2024 but was only made public on September 15 2025. This was at least nine months later than expected and well after the May 2025 federal election.
Since the report was released, the Australian government has made no commitment to conduct or publish any future National Climate Risk Assessments or National Adaptation Plans.
That's despite planned updates to global climate modelling, economic modelling and census data being at their disposal. So far they have ignored calls to legislate for future risk assessments from the Climate Change Authority and groups such the Australian Stategic Policy Institute and the Investor Group for Climate Change .
No sign of urgency
Australia is making some progress in cleaning up our energy and transport sectors, notably through government schemes for rooftop solar , home batteries and electric vehicles . Nevertheless, we continue to burn unsustainable amounts of coal and gas, exporting vast amounts of polluting greenhouse gases that cause global temperatures to rise.
Since September 2025, when the National Climate Risk Assessment was released, the Australian government has approved at least six coal and gas project extensions. And the government continues to subsidise coal, oil and gas corporations to the tune of at least $14 billion each year.
Research suggests climate damage to coastal communities alone may approach a trillion dollars by 2100. Yet, spending on climate adaptation under the federal Disaster Ready Fund has dropped from the initial commitment of $200 million per year to roughly $140 million in 2026-27.
The National Climate Risk Assessment Future Climate and Hazard Report , of which I was coordinating lead author, identified more than 30 significant gaps in Australia's climate-related research and expertise.
Yet CSIRO, Australia's national science agency, has announced major staffing cuts which will hamstring our ability to conduct future climate change modelling and research. The government is also reducing funding to the National Environmental Science Program by about $30 million , while even the Australian Climate Service is diverting more than $15 million to a consulting company.
I was one of many scientists and experts who contributed blood, sweat and tears to Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment. It is a crucial step forward in our fight against climate change. But it must be followed up with future risk assessments and more funding for climate science and adaptation.
We have a clear picture of the danger ahead. Without an urgent change in course, we will only continue hurtling towards it.
Andrew B. Watkins is a Climate Councillor at the Climate Council.
