Australia's rooftop solar revolution has been one of the nation's great clean energy success stories, with more solar panels installed per person than anywhere else in the world.
Australia's rooftop solar revolution has been one of the nation's great clean energy success stories, with more solar panels installed per person than anywhere else in the world.
But that success has created a new challenge. As millions of panels age, researchers warn the country must act quickly to prevent a looming waste problem and unlock the economic value of materials already in circulation.
A new report led by RMIT University, in partnership with global think tank RAND, finds that without adequate infrastructure, more than one million tonnes of end-of-life solar panels will have accumulated in Australia by 2035, much of it going to non-circular pathways such as stockpiling, landfill or informal disposal, rather than being reused or recycled.
Researchers found while Australia is well placed to become a global leader in solar circularity, the opportunity remains largely untapped because it's cheaper to send solar panels to landfill than to recover, refurbish or recycle them, and the systems needed to do so at scale are not yet in place.
To unlock this opportunity, experts say Australia needs a coordinated national approach and sets out three priorities for government:
- Create a national marketplace for used solar panels, to keep working panels in service. Between 45 and 65 per cent of decommissioned panels remain suitable for reuse, yet only about 10 per cent are currently tested for it.
- Introduce a product stewardship scheme by mid-2027, to ensure responsible collection and recycling of end-of-life solar panels. Recycling costs about $28 per panel against $4-5 for landfill, so without policy the market defaults to disposal.
- Strengthen commercial viability for recyclers, backed by standards that reward genuine recovery of high-value materials rather than downcycling.
Turning waste into economic value
Rather than viewing retired solar panels as a waste burden, researchers say they are a valuable resource capable of supporting new industries and jobs.
Many panels come off roofs long before they wear out. In a recent Queensland trial, panels were retired after an average of 12 years, against a design life of 20-25 years. Analysis by solar reuse company Blue Tribe estimates a reused panel carries 133 times the economic value of a recycled one, and the report finds reinstalling usable panels could lift Australia's solar generation capacity by up to 17 per cent.
Recovered materials, led by silver, could be worth more than $1 billion cumulatively to 2035. Established research also shows recycling supports 9.2 jobs per 10,000 tonnes of waste, compared with 2.8 for disposal.
Lead researcher and RMIT Environmental Engineering Discipline Lead Associate Professor Ylias Sabri said Australia was entering a crucial phase in its renewable energy journey.
"Australia has been a global leader in rooftop solar adoption, but we now need to become a leader in managing what happens when those systems reach the end of their life," he said.
"Too often, solar panels are treated as waste the moment they come off a roof, despite many still having years of productive life remaining. And some processes described as recycling are really downcycling, crushing panels into construction materials and losing the silver, silicon and copper for good."
A narrow window for action
More than 40.6 gigawatts of solar capacity is already installed across more than four million systems in Australia. The country already generates about 40,000 tonnes of end-of-life panels a year, which could surge to more than 100,000 tonnes a year by the early 2030s.
The report argues the business case is already within reach. A commercial-scale facility processing 2,500 tonnes a year needs about $7.5 million in capital and pays back in seven to eight years using existing technology, and recycling facilities are financially viable across all five states assessed. Co-author and director of RAND's Community Health and Environment Policy Program Benjamin Lee Preston said the opportunity would not remain open forever.
"Every panel that ends up in landfill represents a lost opportunity to recover critical materials, support local manufacturing and create jobs. The longer we wait, the more difficult and expensive it becomes to capture those benefits," he said.
Building a circular economy for solar technologies
For solar panels, circularity means recovering, reusing, refurbishing and recycling valuable materials such as silver, aluminium and glass. Co-author and RMIT Professor Xavier Mulet said it offered benefits far beyond waste reduction.
"By recovering, reusing and recycling those materials, Australia can reduce reliance on imported resources, strengthen supply chains and build new industries around recycling, refurbishment and advanced manufacturing," he said.
Opportunities to lead globally
The report says Australia is uniquely positioned to lead globally in solar circularity, building on its world-leading rooftop solar market.
Co-author and RMIT Professor Usha Iyer-Raniga said that without action, valuable resources could be permanently lost through downcycling or disposal.
"The window for action is closing. What Australia does now will determine whether it becomes a global leader in solar circularity or misses a once-in-a-generation economic and environmental opportunity," she said.
Report details
Towards an Australian Circular Economy for Solar Photovoltaic Technologies (RMIT University and RAND, 2026)
- Full report: https://www.rand.org/t/RRA4495-1
- Research brief: https://www.rand.org/t/RBA4495-1
