Ten years on from the landmark Paris Agreement, countries have taken big strides in limiting emissions and the clean energy transition is accelerating rapidly. But geopolitical headwinds are growing and the damage bill for climate pollution is rising. Climate action hangs in the balance.
Authors
- Wesley Morgan
Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney
- Ben Newell
Professor of Cognitive Psychology and Director of the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney
Next week, these issues will come to a head as negotiators gather in Brazil for COP30, the 30th annual global climate talks. This year's talks could be pivotal, as all countries were due to set more ambitious targets to cut emissions. Will the world double down on the clean energy transition - or will momentum stall and fossil fuel interests win out?
Australia has a larger role than its size and clout might suggest. After two decades as one of the world's worst climate laggards, the new national emissions target compares favourably with much of the developed world. Australia is also bidding to host the next COP talks with Pacific nations.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has attracted some criticism over his decision not to attend the summit. But Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will be there, alongside dozens of negotiators and experts from Australia and the Pacific.
The outcome is uncertain. But for the first time in years, Australia will be a leader in working towards a consensus on a managed transition away from fossil fuels.
What's at stake at COP30?
The world's climate talks are returning to their birthplace. The UN Climate Convention was signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 before talks began three years later. This year, the 30th Conference of Parties will be held in the Amazonian city of Belém.
For COP30 to succeed, it must firm up global commitment to the Paris Agreement. That may seem hard, given the United States is once again walking away from climate action.
But there is good news. The Paris Agreement is working, slowly but surely. Countries agreed to set emissions targets and increase their ambition every five years. These targets are bending the curve of emissions and limiting warming.
Before Paris, the world was on track for a catastrophic outcome : 4°C degrees of warming this century. The first wave of global emissions targets brought this closer to 3°C. In 2021, upgraded targets brought projections down to 2.1-2.8°C. Tallying up the new round of national targets suggests it may be possible to limit warming to 1.9°C . That assumes, of course, all targets are met in full. The new United Nations emissions gap report suggests 2.3-2.5°C is more likely.
The bad news is the Paris Agreement is not working fast enough. The longer we take to bring global emissions to net zero, the more heating we bake in. Every fraction of a degree intensifies damage to ecosystems and human communities. We are seeing these worsening impacts now at 1.2°C of warming. Almost every corner of the world is already reeling from intensifying heat, storms, floods, droughts and fires.
What can Australia do?
Australia's delegation will arrive in Belém with a much stronger target: cutting emissions 62-70% by 2035 (from 2005 levels).
This isn't aligned with the science - a cut of at least 75% is needed to align with the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. But it's an improvement.
Australia's 2030 target was one of the weakest among wealthy nations. But only a handful of nations now have a more ambitious 2035 target.
That's not all. Australia's rapid shift to renewable energy is one of the fastest in the world. One in three Australian homes now has rooftop solar . Grid operators are at the forefront of soaking up more and more clean power. The federal government plans to have the main grid running on over 80% renewable power within five years. These successes offer an encouraging story.
Our turn next?
If the COP31 bid succeeds, it would mean Adelaide would host Australia's largest ever diplomatic meeting. Success would help cement Australia's place in the Pacific at a time of increasing geostrategic competition .
In 2022, the Australian government announced its bid to host the COP talks with the Pacific. Since then, Bowen has effectively been auditioning to head the talks, taking on key roles at the annual climate talks. At last year's talks in Azerbaijan, he co-chaired negotiations for a new global finance goal.
The bid has broad support. But Turkey has refused to withdraw a rival bid . The standoff is expected to be resolved in the second week of talks in Belém.
If Australia secures hosting rights, leaders will have a positive story to tell about the renewables shift. But hosting would also draw attention to Australia's huge gas and coal exports. Long one of the largest coal exporters, Australia's gas production has doubled since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The emissions of these exports are three times larger than the entire domestic economy.
Until recently, these exported emissions were considered a customer responsibility. But in July, the world's highest court found countries are legally responsible for climate damages caused by fossil fuel production and consumption, noting countries approving new fossil fuel projects may be committing " internationally wrongful acts ".
This finding is likely to ripple through these talks. Two years ago, nations at COP28 in Dubai agreed to " transition away from fossil fuels " in their energy systems. Bowen hailed the announcement :
if we are to keep 1.5°C alive, fossil fuels have no ongoing role to play in our energy systems - and I speak as the climate and energy minister of one of the world's largest fossil fuel exporters.
Bowen and the Australian delegation will have to bring this level of clarity to Brazil amid backsliding by other major fossil fuel exporters such as the United States .
If COP31 comes to Adelaide, Bowen will need to go further. No one has yet given a sunset date for Australia's fossil fuel industry. Working alongside Pacific nations, Australia can build a global legacy: beginning the managed phase out of fossil fuel production.
Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia
Ben Newell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
