Using data science, Dr Sarthak Mondal , a Lecturer in Sport Management at University of Portsmouth, has developed a programme that allows him to predict the winner of the UEFA Women's Euro 2025. The tournament will be played in Switzerland from 2 to 27 July.
The programme is based on code developed by Laurie Shaw, lead Director of Football Data at City Football Group.
The results have been simulated 1,000,000 times and the model is more robust than previously as it takes into consideration the special situations in knock-out matches.
Spain are the favourites to win the tournament (22%), followed by Germany (16%) and England (14%). England are likely to lose in the semi-finals when they face Spain.
The same programme has previously predicted England to win the Women's 2022 Euros, Argentina to win the FIFA Men's World Cup 2022, and Spain to win the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023.
Simulation results, Women's Euro 2025
Dr Mondal said: "The simulation paints an exciting picture for Women's Euro 2025. While Spain emerges as the clear favourite, the margins are narrow at the top and there's plenty of room for surprises. England, for instance, has a strong path to the semi-finals and could potentially go all the way if matches go into extra time or penalties, where unpredictable moments often decide the outcome.
"This updated model accounts for the drama and nuance of knock-out football more accurately than ever before too. It's not just about raw talent, it's about timing, strategy, and a bit of luck. The fact that it previously predicted champions like England in 2022 and Argentina in Qatar gives us confidence in its reliability!"
In 2017, Sarthak came across a twitter account called @EightyFivePoint that predicted the FIFA World Cup 2018. The account belonged to Laurie Shaw. Laurie agreed to make the code public for non-commercial purposes and Sarthak has been using it to predict the outcome of major sporting events for the past few years.
He adapted the code by integrating variables not used in Laurie's model - such as relative home advantage (when both teams are playing at a neutral venue) and adding additional categorical variables for knock-out rounds.
