As world leaders begin COP30 climate negotiations in Brazil this week, an international team co-led by a University of Sydney researcher has warned of a hidden crisis undermining global biodiversity and carbon targets: the quiet abandonment of conservation projects.
The comment paper, 'Conservation abandonment is a policy blind spot', published in Nature Ecology & Evolution , was co-led by Dr Matthew Clark , a postdoctoral researcher in the Thriving Oceans Research Hub at the University of Sydney and an honorary research associate in the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.
Dr Clark said that conservatively, US$87 billion is spent annually on conservation programs and that figure can climb to US$200 billion depending on what exactly is counted.
"As we grapple with the biodiversity and climate crises, these required investments are expected to be US$540 billion by 2030 and US$740 billion by 2050," Dr Clark said. "While these investments are essential for meeting both carbon and biodiversity goals, we have virtually no line of sight on how long these programs endure.
"Evidence suggests at least one third are abandoned just a few years after implementation.
This blind spot potentially compromises progress announced at events like COP, as meaningful ecological recovery can take decades," he said.
"If we only count the implementation of programs, this will inflate estimates of progress."
The international viewpoint was co-authored with researchers from Imperial College London, the University of Kent, Monash University and other institutions. The lead authors worked closely with Associate Professor Morena Mills who leads the Catalyzing Conservation group at Imperial College London.
The paper introduces the concept of 'conservation abandonment' – where responsible parties simply informally fail to fulfil their duties or where laws or other agreements are formally changed to reverse formal protections.
These abandoned projects, though inactive, are frequently still included in official reporting, masking the true state of environmental protection.
"We're racing to meet global targets like protecting 30 per cent of land and sea by 2030," said Associate Professor Carly Cook , a co-author from Monash University's School of Biological Sciences.
"But no one's asking if the parks we've established are still being managed, or if the projects that we've started even still exist in any meaningful way."
The team found that the legal protection for conservation areas has been undermined more than 3700 times globally in what are called PADDD events (Protected Area Downgrading, Downsizing and Degazettement). Alongside formal rollbacks, they also reveal widespread abandonment of community-led conservation programs in Africa and South America.
In Chile, 22 percent of Territorial Use Rights in fisheries assigned to local communities were later discontinued. In Canada, the formal downgrading in a marine conservation area opened up oil exploratory drilling in 26,450 square kilometres. Morocco and Canada collectively disestablished seven conservation areas totalling 2412 square kilometres.
The authors warn that Australia is not immune, with many programs underfunded or quietly dropped after initial fanfare.
Associate Professor Cook said: "Australia has a disappointing record of reducing protections for national parks and protected areas, including for the Great Barrier Reef.
"We also have a huge network of Marine Protected Areas but there is very little active management or enforcement." Research from 2021 shows Marine Protected Areas have had protection downgraded 38 times affecting more than 1 million square kilometres.
Her research points to She also points to ongoing concerns in the accounting of carbon offset credits.
The authors call for a global monitoring system to track conservation abandonment, more robust long-term funding and greater transparency in environmental accounting.
"The reality is that the launch of a new conservation project is just the beginning," Dr Clark said. "These initiatives will need to continue for decades, or sometimes in perpetuity, to yield real change. In many cases, when funding ends or when responsibilities are dropped, we go right back to where we started."
Joint corresponding author, Dr Tom Pienkowski at the University of Kent, said: "This topic is particularly timely given recent global political events that threaten to erode conservation gains achieved over recent decades.
"The Trump administration has cut more than US$365 million in funding for international conservation initiatives. Such policy changes risk legitimising and foreshadowing an acceleration in conservation abandonment on a global scale."
The findings arrive as COP30 delegates prepare to assess global progress toward biodiversity and carbon goals, highlighting the urgent need for policies that ensure conservation measures persist over time.
Download an embargoed copy of the paper at this link .
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