A new study led by researchers in the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences has found that if the UK food industry had met the government's voluntary 2024 salt reduction targets, substantial improvements could have been made in cardiovascular health, leading to major savings for the NHS - all without the public having to change their eating habits.
The study, published in the American Heart Association's Journal Hypertension , examined how much salt people in the UK currently consume from packaged and takeaway foods, and estimated what would happen if all food categories covered by the government's 2024 salt targets met those goals.
The 2024 salt targets set maximum and average salt limits for 108 categories of everyday packaged and out-of-home foods - from bread and ready meals to takeaway favourites - to guide the food industry in gradually reducing salt across the UK diet.
Excess salt intake raises blood pressure and increases the risk of heart disease and stroke, two of the leading causes of illness and death in the UK.
The research team, supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), used national diet survey data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2018-19) and a population health model called PRIMEtime to estimate how reducing salt intake could affect blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, quality of life and NHS healthcare costs.
What the researchers found
If the food industry had achieved the 2024 targets, average adult salt intake would have decreased from 6.1g a day to 4.9g a day, a reduction of around 17.5% (1.12 g/day). Men were estimated to see slightly greater reductions than women because they typically consume more salt.
Overall, the study estimates this would lower the top blood pressure number (the pressure in the arteries when the heart beats) by about one point in women and just over one point in men. Although the reduction in blood pressure for each individual is small, across millions of people it adds up to a large reduction in disease.
As a result, these modest reductions in daily salt intake would translate into substantial population-level health benefits. Over a 20-year period, the modelling suggests:
- 103,000 fewer cases of ischaemic heart disease
- 25,000 fewer strokes
- 243,000 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained
- £1.0 billion in healthcare savings for the NHS over the population's lifetime
Why this matters
Lead author Dr Lauren Bandy , Researcher in the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences , explained: 'Unlike individual dietary advice, which can be hard to implement consistently, salt reduction through reformulation of manufactured products is a population-wide strategy that requires no action from consumers. It is widely recognised by the World Health Organization as one of the most cost-effective ways to improve population health. Strengthening monitoring and enforcement of salt targets, or moving towards mandatory schemes, could help ensure these benefits are realised.'
Looking ahead
The authors note several limitations. Some of the data on the salt content of foods were not fully up to date, and the dietary survey relies on people reporting what they eat, which often underestimates intake, particularly for foods eaten outside the home. In addition, not all food categories covered by the salt reduction programme could be linked to foods in the survey, meaning some sources of salt were not included and the study may underestimate the potential health benefits.
Despite these limitations, the findings add to international evidence that reducing salt in the food supply could substantially improve population health.
The researchers suggest that future work should focus on up-to-date monitoring of salt in processed foods, understanding industry compliance with voluntary versus mandatory programmes, and examining the impact of salt reduction on other conditions such as chronic kidney disease.
Read the full study, ' Estimating the Potential Impact of the 2024 UK Salt Reduction Targets on Cardiovascular Health Outcomes and Health Care Costs in Adults: A Modeling Study ' in the American Heart Association's Journal Hypertension .
