Cyclone Maila Weakening in Solomon Sea

Now, Tropical Cyclone Maila is located about 830 km north-east of Port Moresby, and it is now a Category 1 system. It has weakened in the past 24 hours. We can see in the satellite imagery there's been a decrease in these areas of deep cloud, storms and convection, which indicate that it is very much on a weakening trend.

Now, there are a couple of reasons for that, one of which is that we've seen an increase in winds through different depths of the atmosphere, and that means that the cyclone is struggling to maintain its structure. And another reason is that because Cyclone Maila has been sitting over the Solomon Sea for quite a few days now, it's actually now drawing cool water from below the surface.

However, we know that tropical cyclones need very warm water to be able to sustain themselves. So Tropical Cyclone Maila is going to continue on this weakening trend over the next couple of days. Where we can see tomorrow it is going to start to move to the south-west, and we are also expecting that over the next day it will decrease in intensity even further and transition to a tropical low.

So it is going to move near the south-eastern parts of Papua New Guinea and then move into the Coral Sea and take a turn to the west. So, into the new week it will turn west and then start moving towards Far North Queensland, reaching Cape York Peninsula about Wednesday and then moving further into the Gulf area likely later this week.

Now, because the system is on such a weakening trend, that means that we're only likely to see either a weak tropical low or a low pressure trough impacting northern parts of Queensland. And what that means is that we're no longer expecting to see those very damaging cyclone-strength winds impacting Queensland. However, we are still expecting to see an increase in rainfall and tropical moisture through parts of northern Queensland during next week.

So let's now take a look at the rainfall that we're expecting to see from Tuesday through to Thursday next week. Here we can see that the rainfall will start on Tuesday through coastal areas, then it's going to move inland through the Gulf area and even into parts of the Northern Territory through the latter parts of next working week.

Now, much of northern Queensland has seen a very wet season, which means there's an increased risk of both flash and riverine flooding with this rainfall expected next week. And we may even see a Flood Watch issued over the coming days.

For now, we just ask that you keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings, as always, via the Bureau's website, app or social media.

Thanks very much for watching. We'll see you next time.