Canada is facing larger wildfires , rising flood risks and worsening traffic congestion . The federal government's infrastructure plan budgets at least $180 billion over 12 years , yet insured disaster losses hit a record $8.5 billion in 2024 .
Authors
- Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi
Visiting Senior Researcher, Smart Structures Research Group, University of British Columbia
- T.Y. Yang
Professor, Structural & Earthquake Engineering, University of British Columbia
Despite these massive investments, too often problems are only discovered after construction begins. One way to address this is to model risks and impacts before they occur using a digital replica that mirrors how real systems work .
A "digital twin" - essentially a live virtual model of roads, transit, energy, water and public buildings - would let policymakers and planners test ideas and spot risks ahead of time. It blends maps and 3D models with data (some live, some updated regularly), so policymakers and planners can run "what-if" scenarios.
For example, policymakers could use a digital twin to see how a lane closure, new bus route or wildfire evacuation order might ripple through a city before making a decision. Singapore already uses this approach to test planning and emergency responses and its documented efficiency gains are clear .
As researchers, we see a national, federated digital twin improving Canada's resilience and efficiency in three practical ways.
Benefit #1: Safer wildfire evacuations
Canada's 2023 wildfire season was the worst on record , with more than 18 million hectares burned, and 2025 has already been called the second-worst on record .
When fires move fast, evacuation routes can become jammed and communication can break down. During the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, for instance, residents received "mixed messages" about the threat and proximity of the wildfire. Thousands of people ended up jamming Highway 63 , the sole road in and out of the city.
Similarly, during Yellowknife's 2023 evacuation, an after-action review found there was a lack of clear and transparent communication to the public about an evacuation plan, leading to "significant confusion and stress."
A national digital twin could help emergency teams rehearse evacuations in advance . They could test detours, traffic signal plans, one-way controls, signage and reception-centre capacity; check if ambulances can reach hospitals when smoke closes a route; and push clear routes to navigation apps in real time.
Benefit #2: Faster, more reliable commutes
Traffic congestion and transit delays cost Canadians time, productivity and peace of mind. We all know what it's like when a construction project snarls traffic or a crowded station slows trains.
A 2024 report from the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis estimated that congestion cost Ontario $56.4 billion in total economic and social impacts. Of that, about $43.6 billion was linked to reduced quality of life, including stress, health impacts and time lost to delays.
A digital twin could help. With this technology, transit agencies could test bus-only lanes, signal timing, platform-crowding fixes and construction plans before rolling them out .
Vancouver International Airport has already built a real-time digital twin to optimize passenger flows . The same principles can also be applied to transit hubs and busy corridors, helping cities identify problems early, reduce disruption and move people more efficiently.
Benefit #3: Better use of tax dollars
Cost overruns and rework continue to drain public budgets across Canada. Major infrastructure projects frequently exceed their initial pricetags, like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which is now projected to cost nearly $34 billion - almost six times the original $5.3 billion estimate .
Montréal's Réseau express metropolitain light-rail project has faced multiple cost increases as wells, rising from an initial estimate of $6.3 billion to more than $7.9 billion as of 2023.
Digital twins can reduce these losses by identifying design conflicts early, comparing options side-by-side and improving transparency with the public.
Evidence suggests the savings can be substantial. A technical report from the National Research Council of Canada found that using digital design tools to resolve design conflicts early saved roughly 20 per cent of a project's contract value.
The potential returns are equally clear abroad. The U.K. government estimates that applying digital twins to network management could deliver 856 million pounds in benefits over 10 years .
Canada is already testing these possibilities. Ontario's $5 million digital twin pilot is exploring how they can be used to deliver hospitals, highways and transit projects on time and on budget .
Similarly, the federal government is exploring using a digital twin to improve infrastructure maintenance and planning . Public Services and Procurement Canada has issued a Request for Information on a digital twin platform for its building portfolio.
From scattered projects to a national framework
Canada already has a strong foundation to build on for a national digital twin. Many Canadian cities already publish detailed base spatial data, such as Toronto's 3D massing models and Vancouver's public LiDAR data that captures its urban form in high resolution.
Canadian universities are already leading the way. Researchers at Carleton University have been the first to model a digital twin at a national scale , and plan to release the project's code as an open-source project and the platform for free.
Infrastructure Ontario and Toronto Metropolitan University have signed a two-year partnership to apply digital-twin technology to modernize provincial infrastructure planning . Meanwhile, four other Canadian universities are involved in a project to explore how these tools can improve development approvals and regulatory decision-making .
The challenge is not to start from scratch, but to connect these existing initiatives under a coherent national framework.
This means agreeing on a few shared rules: common formats so maps and assets line up, clear privacy and security standards that prohibit personal tracking (only anonymous or aggregated data) and a small federal team to maintain standards and allow the different systems to work together.
Transparency about how the digital twin models work will be essential. The government should publish the methods and test results online for communities, journalists and independent experts to check. Routine audits and a quick way to fix mistakes should also be added.
A practical first step is to focus on projects that address urgent, tangible issues, namely wildfire evacuation routes and commute reliability. Early successes in these areas would demonstrate value quickly while proving the model's effectiveness.
Learning from global leaders
Canada does not need to invent its own rule book. It can adopt existing frameworks like the U.K.'s plain-English Gemini Principles and information-management playbook, which focuses on public benefit, openness and safety.
Singapore , the U.K. and the European Union have all developed, implemented and tested digital twin programs, showing how to set standards, protect privacy and deliver public benefits.
If Canada borrows their templates and lessons, it can move faster and at a lower cost. It will be able to link early adopters, focus on high-impact uses like wildfire evacuations and commute reliability, publish results for review and then expand.
By doing so, Canada would shift from fragmented projects to a national digital twin that strengthens resilience, protects privacy and improves everyday life.
Dr. Ehsan Noroozinejad has received funding from both national and international organizations to support research addressing housing and climate crises. His most recent funding for integrated housing and climate policy comes from the APPI. He has also been involved in securing funding from NSERC and Mitacs. He is also affiliated with Western Sydney University.
Professor T.Y. Yang secures funding from national and international organizations to develop innovative solutions for housing and climate crises, with a focus on modern methods of construction.
