Nearly 62,000 people have been displaced by drought across five districts in Somalia since the beginning of the year. Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) shows that drought now accounts for three out of every four new displacements, a 22 per cent increase from last year that underscores the growing severity of climate shocks.
Even if the Gu rainy season (April-June) brings normal to above-normal rainfall, nearly 125,000 more people are projected to be displaced by drought in the second quarter of 2026, according to IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix.
"Drought is already forcing tens of thousands of people from their homes, and many more could be displaced in the months ahead," said Manuel Pereira, Chief of Mission for IOM Somalia. "When water disappears, crops fail and livelihoods collapse, displacement becomes a last resort. Without swift action, drought will continue to uproot communities, deepen hunger and increase vulnerability across Somalia, particularly for the most vulnerable."
Baidoa, Dayniile, Kahda, Diinsoor and Doolow districts are among the hardest hit, as worsening drought conditions drive crop failure and the collapse of livelihoods, deepening hunger and placing increasing pressure on already limited infrastructure.
This surge in climate-driven displacement follows below-average rainfall during the 2025 Deyr season, compounded by an unusually harsh Jilaal dry period. Water sources have been depleted, grazing conditions have deteriorated, and agricultural production has been severely reduced across parts of the country, forcing thousands to leave their homes in search of water, food and assistance.
IOM's DTM projections indicate that drought-related mobility, particularly among pastoral and farming communities, is expected to increase further in the coming months if rainfall conditions do not improve. This raises concerns that displacement pressures may intensify across already vulnerable regions as displaced households move toward towns and cities where they hope to access assistance or basic services.
However, these urban centres are not capable of rapidly absorbing sudden population growth, leaving many newly displaced families to settle in informal or underserved areas where access to basic services and infrastructure remains extremely limited.
Findings from a recent IOM pilot assessment on pastoral mobility in the Gedo region highlight that many households reported travelling long distances to reach water points, while livestock losses linked to drought and extreme heat were widely reported during the monitoring period. When livestock herds decline, households lose their primary source of income, food and resilience against future shocks.
Through the Rapid Support Mechanism, IOM and its partners are able to respond quickly to emerging shocks and provide life-saving support to newly displaced families, including emergency shelter, water, non-food items and essential assistance.
Yet the scale and pace of drought-driven displacement and food insecurity are rapidly outstripping available resources. In displacement sites and informal settlements, families face overcrowded conditions, limited access to safe water and sanitation, and inadequate shelter, compounding already severe humanitarian needs.
With drought expected to persist, IOM is calling for urgent and sustained support to address the growing impacts. Scaling up life-saving humanitarian assistance remains critical, alongside stronger investment in water infrastructure, drought resilience and climate-resilient livelihoods that help communities withstand future shocks.
