Geneva, Switzerland (WMO) - El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO community is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.
WMO's monthly WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.
Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO's full El Niño/La Niña Update (issued 2 June). It provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, in addition to El Niño.
"El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event - as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
"The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities," she said.
