Extreme Heat, Fire Danger Threaten SE Australia

Let's start by taking a look at what happened yesterday.

Over Western Australia, very hot conditions, particularly through the Pilbara and the Gascoyne. Carnarvon reaching 47.9 °C. That is a January record for that location, with records dating back to the 1880s. Perth got up to 40.7 °C.

Today though we're expecting slightly cooler conditions along the coast as a trough starts to move inland. But these purple areas show areas where we're forecasting maximum temperatures in the mid to high forties. And that's still continuing to see a lot of heat through parts of Western Australia.

But as we move into tomorrow, that trough is going to move across and drag that heat into eastern parts of Western Australia and also western parts of South Australia. On Saturday, the trough will continue to move eastwards, tracked by a cold front over the Southern Ocean. And that's going to give a lot of heat over South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

A top of 40 °C forecast for Melbourne, 42 °C for Adelaide. It's a little bit of a reprieve for the south coast on Sunday, but the heat isn't going anywhere. It's going to linger over inland parts and also start to redevelop over southern parts of Western Australia.

So as we go into the new week that heat will build again over South Australia, New South Wales and particularly north-western parts of Victoria. Looking at the top of 43 °C for Adelaide on Monday.

Into Tuesday, that could be the peak of the day for north-western Victoria, with 47 °C on the forecast currently for Mildura. That would be a January record. For New South Wales, it might actually be Wednesday that is the hottest day for many locations. And again we could see some records falling.

So with all this heat, we are expecting heatwave conditions. These light yellow areas showing Low intensity Heatwave, but it's really these orange areas we're expecting Severe Heatwave, and the red where we're likely to see Extreme Heatwave that we want to focus on.

So for the period from Friday to Sunday, we're mostly seeing that Severe Heatwave focused on South Australia. But looking at the period from Saturday through to Monday, we see that heatwave extending across most of south-eastern Australia. And for the period from Sunday through to Tuesday, we start to see some of these red areas developing over north-eastern Victoria, parts of New South Wales and even up into the Darling Downs in Queensland. And this is area of Extreme Heatwave.

Now Severe Heatwaves can be very dangerous for vulnerable people, particularly those who are very young or very old, people with pre-existing medical conditions or who are pregnant. But the Extreme Heatwave conditions are very dangerous for everybody if you don't take precautions to stay cool.

So how is this going to impact our fire dangers?

Well, with that heat over Western Australia today, we do see widespread High Fire Danger. But with the trough moving through the south, that is increasing the winds and giving us Extreme Fire Danger over much of south-western Western Australia today.

Tomorrow we see that High Fire Danger pushing into eastern parts of Western Australia. But it's really on Saturday that we're going to see that fire danger really ramp up, particularly over South Australia, most of the state expecting High to Extreme Fire Danger, and the York Peninsula is also currently forecasting Catastrophic Fire Danger. That means that any fires that start under those conditions will be almost impossible to fight.

We do also see that Extreme Fire Danger extending into parts of western Victoria on Saturday, and on Sunday we start to see that High Fire Danger extending right across Victoria and into New South Wales. We see Extreme Fire Danger over north-eastern parts of Victoria.

Now remembering we do have some significant fires in the landscape already over north-eastern Victoria. There's also some Extreme Fire Danger over southern New South Wales, including for the ACT.

So what are the impacts of this heat?

Well, obviously increased risk of bushfires. The combination of heat and wind, and particularly the very dry fuels from the heat that we've seen over previous weeks, that does give us a very high risk of bushfires taking off and being very hard to fight.

We also see the heat making it difficult to sleep and to stay cool, and that can take a real toll on the body, so please take precautions. We also expect to see stress on power and infrastructure from both the heat and also the risk of fire over coming days.

So with so much heat and fire danger, it's going to be really important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and the BOM Weather app. Listen to all your local emergency services as they will be issuing warnings and Total Fire Bans.

And please stay safe.