England's farms have significantly reduced their environmental footprint over the past decade, according to new modelling that suggests greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of pollution are on a downward trend.
The study, which assessed intensive farming systems between 2010 and 2021 over 72,000 km² of farmland, found median reductions of 18% in both short- and long-term global warming potential, alongside a 21% drop in acidification potential. Eutrophication potential — the nutrient run-off that can pollute rivers and lakes — fell by 13%.
The changes reflect a marked restructuring of English agriculture. The area of land devoted to general cropping rose by nearly 4%, while land used for dairy contracted by 2%. Registered cattle numbers fell sharply, down by almost a quarter by 2016 and by 30% by 2021 compared with 2010 levels. Sheep and lamb numbers dropped even more dramatically, by more than 40%.
However, the improvements are uneven. While some water management catchments recorded reductions of up to 76% in certain environmental indicators, others saw little progress, with less than 5% improvement.
There were some significant changes between 2016 to 2021 for some crops and land use, including an increase for rotational grass, spring barley, peas and fodder crops and a substantial decrease in the area under permanent grass. There were also more minority crops being introduced as the area of land used for the 'Other crops' category expanded dramatically. There was also evidence for increased specialisation and intensification as, relatively speaking, more arable crops were in cereal farms, more cattle on dairy farms and more sheep and lambs on lowland grazing farms by 2021.
The findings underline both the potential and the limitations of current farming practices in meeting climate and environmental targets. Researchers caution that it remains difficult to link modelled trends directly with on-the-ground monitoring data and stress the need for regular strategic assessments to inform national agricultural policy.
With climate change, energy insecurity and resource depletion creating mounting pressure on food systems, the authors argue that policy makers must combine regulation, financial incentives and practical advice to help farmers and land managers continue to cut their environmental impact.
"Farming is indispensable to feeding a growing population, but it must also become more sustainable," according to Dr Yusheng Zhang who led the study. "Routine assessment of environmental footprints will be critical to building a climate-resilient and economically viable agricultural industry."
Study co-author Professor Adie Collins added, "Farm structure changes such as reduction in livestock counts and of embedded emissions in agrochemicals and fuels have contributed to the modelled results. Whilst spatial variations in the magnitude of change were inevitably predicted across the country, the findings clearly demonstrate, in the context of the current policy debate surrounding a potential Land Use Framework for England, how structural change in farms can deliver appreciable environmental benefits."
