France has shown resilience to recent global shocks and benefits from strong economic fundamentals. Further reforms to enhance productivity and job creation would unlock stronger growth. Improving public spending efficiency is essential to ensure fiscal sustainability, while providing space for upcoming defence and growth-enhancing spending such as education, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of France.
GDP is projected to continue to expand at a steady, but modest pace, with growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, following growth of 0.9% in 2025. Inflation is set to rise from 0.9% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026 before declining to 1.8% in 2027.
"France has strong economic foundations - talent, a diversified economy, solid AI capabilities, and reliable access to energy," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said, presenting the Survey in Paris alongside France's Minister of Economy, Finance, and Industrial, Energy and Digital Sovereignty Roland Lescure. "The challenge is to move from resilience to growth - strengthening public finances, getting better value from innovation spending, cutting red tape and building skills."
Stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio will require sizeable fiscal consolidation that should come mainly from enhancing spending efficiency and addressing ageing-related pressures, including by resuming the planned pension reform. Phasing out ineffective tax expenditures and reducing the rates of the most distortive taxes will help boost investment and employment.
Strengthening the economy's competitiveness will require a better return from innovation policies. Despite generous public support for innovation, private research and development remains modest. Revising research and development tax credits for large firms and better targeting would improve innovation efficiency. Strengthening skills is also needed, notably by aligning training with labour market needs and expanding dual education in industry.
As the population ages, enhancing the quality of long-term care will be key, including by addressing worker shortages. Stronger training and career opportunities, and better working conditions, would help. Targeting long-term care support to older people with severe needs and low incomes can reduce the risk of poverty. Increasing spending on preventive care would also support healthy ageing.
Increasing the predictability and stability around climate policies would help boost their effectiveness. In particular, higher and broader carbon prices would reduce emissions while raising revenues for investment. Strengthening incentives for prevention efforts and local adaptation strategies would improve resilience to climate risks, such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and floods.
