Before booking a holiday, it pays to check the weather.
Authors
- Kerstin Zander
Professor of Environmental Economics, Charles Darwin University
- Stephen Garnett
Professor of Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University
Rain can turn a joyful trip into a glum stretch of days. Soaring temperatures are making sunny summers less appealing. And destructive fires , floods and other natural disasters often lead to tourist evacuations.
Australians are keen travellers. In 2025 alone, we made about 113 million overnight trips locally and more than 12 million trips abroad. We also live in one of the world's most heatwave-prone nations , meaning Australians are exposed to unpredictable weather at home.
But just how much does weather influence the behaviour of Australian tourists? That's the question at the core of our new study , which we believe is the first to reveal how Australians' travel choices are being shaped by our rapidly changing climate .
Holidaying in heat
For our new study , we conducted a national online survey to unpack how weather influences when, where and how Australians travel.
We found a fifth of the 2,292 people we surveyed had changed their most recent holiday because of weather. This included 8% who had been affected by fires, floods or storms, and 6% who had been affected by heavy rain.
However, our main interest was heat.
Extreme heat poses an urgent threat to human health. It kills thousands of people each year, and research suggests this figure is rising due to the effects of human-induced climate change. In Australia alone, the number of deaths from heatwaves is expected to double in the next 40 years.
Existing evidence suggests rain dampens tourist enthusiasm more than heat. However, our study revealed 6% of Australians altered their holiday plans based on impending hot weather. On top of this, a third of those surveyed had decided against going to holiday destinations they considered too hot, such as Dubai or northern Australia. We understand this represents the first empirical evidence that Australians are altering their travel patterns due to heat.
Whims of the weather
Beyond extreme heat, our study suggests weather shapes how Australians holiday in several ways.
Timing
Of the surveyed Australians who tweaked their travel based on weather, 36% either shortened, extended or changed the original dates of their holidays in response to unexpected weather. Natural disasters - such as bushfires or storms - as well as forecast rain and heat were common reasons people changed their travel plans.
Activities
Weather also influences what Australians get up to while on holiday. About 31% of our weather-sensitive survey participants adjusted their planned activities - such as shopping indoors on a humid day - to align with weather forecasts. This was particularly true among beach tourists and those visiting friends or relatives.
Destination
About a fifth of the people who altered plans abandoned their original destination to travel somewhere else instead. A destination change was most common among people doing nature-based activities - such as camping, hiking, cycling or water sports - and least common for city tourists. Natural disasters were the primary reason people switched destinations, followed by heat and then rain.
However, 10% simply gave up and stayed home due to unfavourable weather. The majority were people who had planned to visit family and friends - and perhaps used the weather as a handy excuse.
In rain, hail or shine
What most surprised us was that 80% of people stuck to their original holidays, regardless of the weather.
Nature-based tourists were reluctant to change their holiday plans even in adverse weather. However, this is worrying from a health perspective, particularly given the number of heat-related deaths among hikers .
To protect our outdoorsy travellers, authorities must strengthen heat-related warning systems, build more shaded spaces at major tourist sites, and provide more water sources. They should also provide clear information about staying safe in hot conditions, such as avoiding hiking during the hottest parts of the day and drinking enough water. Heat safety training should be mandatory for staff dealing with tourists at major outdoor attractions, such as national parks.
Older Australians were also more likely to travel in spite of unpredictable weather. This may be because they can't easily change prepaid holiday plans, particularly if they lack computer skills or have limited finances. But given older people are more vulnerable to heat, tourism operators must be especially conscious of heat stress when running tours or activities for seniors.
Where to from here
Worryingly, many Australian tourists lack the knowledge and resources to cope with unpredictable weather. Nearly half of our survey participants were poorly prepared for heat, and about 5% were not prepared at all. Just under half had no weather apps on their phones that would deliver timely weather warnings.
Australia's new national warning system alerts anyone with a mobile phone when a heatwave is about to hit. However, the current understanding of a heatwave - defined as a stretch of at least three abnormally hot days - means Australians won't be warned of any single sweltering day.
Research shows people often recognise the risks of extreme heat, but don't believe it will affect them personally. Education could help bridge this gap. Our study found educating people about extreme heat led them to avoid heatwave-prone places.
We must also educate local health professionals and tourism operators about the dangers of extreme heat and strategies to mitigate it. Only then can we keep Australian tourists safe - both at home and abroad.
Kerstin Zander receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Stephen Garnett receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
