A study conducted at the University of Helsinki indicates that the total number of people with dementia will grow significantly in the coming years, and the number of those living at home may even more than double after 2018.
The study provides the first projection based on national registry data, separately assessing the number of people with dementia living at home and in long-term care by 2040. According to the forecast, the total number of people with dementia will increase from roughly 124,000 in 2018 to approximately 216,000 by 2040 as a result of an ageing population and increased life expectancy.
"The phenomenon is positive as such, as it indicates that more and more people are living longer. At the same time, the number of people living with dementia is growing, increasing the need for care and services," says researcher Maria Guzman-Castillo of the University of Helsinki.
Development of service infrastructure affects where people with dementia live
The study examined two alternative trends in the provision of institutional and residential services.
If service provision remains at the 2018 level, the total number of long-term care clients would increase by roughly 60% to about 117,000 people by 2040. Roughly three-quarters of them would have dementia, with an estimated 126,000 people living at home with such a condition.
If, on the other hand, the provision of services continues to decline at the same rate as before 2018, the number of long-term care clients would drop by roughly 10% from 2018. At the same time, the number of people living at home with dementia would increase from 71,000 to as many as 170,000.
"No matter how many care places are available, the population's need for care will grow. Many people with dementia living at home also need a great deal of support and care," says Postdoctoral Researcher from the University of Helsinki.
"Home care for those with substantial care needs is not necessarily cheaper for society than 24-hour care," she adds.
Preventing dementia would only partially slow the growth
Even if the incidence of dementia were to decrease in the coming years, the number of people with dementia would continue to increase significantly due to an ageing population. However, the growth would be more moderate.
Dementia often develops for decades before diagnosis, which is why any current decrease in incidence would largely reflect the successes of previous decades in promoting public health.
"International research findings on dementia incidence trends are nevertheless contradictory, making the realisation of such developments uncertain," notes Guzman-Castillo.
The study used national registry data to survey dementia diagnoses and the use of long-term care in institutional and residential healthcare and social welfare services among people aged 65 years or older between 2000 and 2018. Future trends were assessed in multiple alternative scenarios based on assumptions on the development of the incidence of dementia, mortality and long-term care provision.
The study was carried out as part of a project entitled 'Life course and economic implications of demographic change' (LIFECON), funded by the DEMOGRAPHY programme of the Strategic Research Council. The Strategic Research Council operates under the Research Council of Finland.
