ALBANY, N.Y. (July 16, 2025) — When a hurricane is in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) deploys its famed Hurricane Hunter team to gather data directly from the storm. The team uses specialized aircraft to fly into the hurricane and collect information about its intensity, structure, and movement, which is used to improve forecasts and warnings.
These missions significantly increase the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, according to a new study published in Weather and Forecasting by researchers at the University at Albany.
The researchers focused on Hurricane Hunter missions conducted with NOAA's Gulfstream IV, often called G-IV, jet, during recent Atlantic hurricane seasons.
They compared the accuracy of forecasts that included the G-IV data with forecasts during the same time period that relied on only satellite imagery and ground observations. The forecasts that utilized G-IV data were as much as 24 percent more accurate than forecasts without the data.
"Our study shows the positive benefits of adding G-IV and other aircraft observational data into weather models and suggests that future forecasting strategies should prioritize these missions," said Melissa Piper, a graduate student research assistant in UAlbany's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences and the study's lead author.
Comparing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
To conduct their study, the researchers analyzed forecasts for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin from 2018 to 2022. They compared two groups of forecasts, those that were generated immediately following a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission, and those that did not have a NOAA G-IV mission in the hours prior to forecast initialization.
For each group of forecasts, the researchers computed the track forecast error and track forecast skill. Forecast track error measures how far a storm's predicted position was from its actual location, while forecast track skill shows how much better the forecast was compared to a simple statistical model.
Their results showed notable improvements in forecasts containing G-IV data, with forecasts for weaker storms benefiting the most.
"Previous studies have shown that weaker storms tend to have larger forecast errors," said Ryan Torn, chair and professor in UAlbany's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences and co-author of the study. "Therefore, the addition of more observations like G-IV data has greater potential to improve the track forecast of these storms."
Additionally, Hurricanes Marco and Zeta, which both made landfall in 2020, were selected as case studies due to their large forecast improvements following the addition of G-IV data into the weather models.
The case studies revealed at least two possible sources of improvement in hurricane track forecasts from G-IV data — changing the initial position of the storm in the model and changing the environmental steering winds guiding the motion of the storm
"After looking at the impacts of G-IV data on a large sample of storms across multiple hurricane seasons, we were curious to understand the specifics on how the addition of the NOAA G-IV data might have led to improvements on individual forecasts," said Piper.
"Previous research has shown that, despite having a net-positive benefit across multiple seasons of forecasts, the addition of G-IV data does not always lead to improvements on individual forecasts. It is important that we fully understand its impact."
Supporting Hurricane Flights
By demonstrating the positive benefits of data from Hurricane Hunter missions, the researchers hope future forecasting strategies will support the flights at either the same or increased frequency.
A new plane, NOAA's G-550 , is expected to join the Hurricane Hunter fleet in 2026. It will be equipped with a variety of advanced sensors for collecting atmospheric data, including a tail-mounted Doppler radar.
"Much of the gains in hurricane intensity forecasting over the last 10 to 15 years have come about thanks to the observations taken by Hurricane Hunters," Torn said. "With more observations in the model, you are more likely to obtain accurate forecasts of the hurricane. As shown in our study, these flights are essential for preparation and post-storm recovery."
About the University at Albany:
The University at Albany is one of the most diverse public research institutions in the nation and a national leader in educational equity and social mobility. As a Carnegie-classified R1 institution, UAlbany faculty and students are advancing our understanding of the world in fields such as artificial intelligence, atmospheric and environmental sciences, business, education, public health, social sciences, criminal justice, humanities, emergency preparedness, engineering, public administration and social welfare. Our courses are taught by an accomplished roster of faculty experts with student success at the center of everything we do. Through our parallel commitments to academic excellence, scientific discovery and service to community, UAlbany molds bright, curious and engaged leaders and launches great careers.
