A joint study by EPFL and the University of Geneva takes a sweeping look at international migration in Switzerland from 1966 to the present day. The authors hope that their insights into the underlying patterns can help policymakers secure the country's economic growth.
Imagine a 33-year-old college-educated man with no children who comes to Switzerland from a neighboring country to work here for a few years - that's the typical immigrant in our country today. Around 60% of people who migrate to Switzerland with a B or C permit have a college degree. The remaining 40% have a middle- or lower-level education and work mainly in the services sector (including healthcare, social services, restaurants and construction); some 5% of these lower-skilled immigrants are refugees under the 1951 Refugee Convention. Of Switzerland's total international inflow, an average of 10% are asylum seekers (of whom some may be granted refugee status), although this percentage fluctuates considerably from year to year. Some 40% of Swiss residents today are of foreign origin.
These are some of the key findings of the joint EPFL-University of Geneva study, which appears in International Migration. The authors analyzed international migration patterns in the country dating back to 1966 by compiling vast datasets, with millions of data points, from censuses, population registers and Switzerland's central migration information system.
"We're aware that the current discourse on immigration is often based on a stereotype that's far removed from reality," says Mathias Lerch, the head of EPFL's Urban Demography Laboratory. "Today's immigrants are typically highly skilled and have the same cultural background as native Swiss people. They generally come here with no children and stay for a short period of time. Our study shows that people's perceptions need to be updated to this new profile. For now, perceptions seem stuck in the 1990s when immigrants arrived from all over the world. Many of them were asylum seekers from the Balkans, who were mostly Muslim, and in numerous cases the migrants were followed by their families. These people moved to Switzerland with the intention of staying here permanently."
Most immigrants come here to get an education or take advantage of a career opportunity, but half of them leave after five to ten years, often with a young family.
Better preparing for the future
Lerch believes that adapting our perceptions will be important to help Switzerland better prepare for the future. Competition is stiff in Europe for highly skilled workers, who are relatively few in number. Switzerland needs to not only keep attracting them - in order to meet demand for labor and help postpone the onset of advanced population aging - but, crucially, to get them to stay. "We found that most immigrants come here to get an education or take advantage of a career opportunity, but half of them leave after five to ten years, often with a young family," says Lerch.
There are many reasons why these migrants leave. First of all, they may have always seen their time in Switzerland as temporary, such as to gain international experience that will help them in the job market. Another factor may be that they have attractive job opportunities in their home country. The study found that return rates are higher among immigrants who come from more developed countries. In addition, the spouse or partner of a highly skilled immigrant may find it difficult to find their place in the Swiss job market and pursue a fulfilling career. And finally, some countries such as Portugal, Spain and Lithuania have introduced incentives for their nationals to return, such as lower tax rates and start-up funding.
If Switzerland wants to secure steady economic growth in the future, it will need to start looking into new hiring pools.
New hiring pools
Immigrants in Switzerland fill an important gap. Today, half of the country's college graduates end up with a tertiary education degree, but this does not fully meet the skill shortage in the labor market. There is also a growing need for workers in the low-qualified service sector as the Swiss population is aging and highly skilled workers boost demand for childcare, cleaning and restaurant services. Moreover, the government will need to take a long-term view and invest heavily in infrastructure to support the country's expanding population - and building this infrastructure will require low- or unskilled workers.
Lerch says that the main takeaway from the study is that "if Switzerland wants to secure steady economic growth in the future, it will need to start looking into new hiring pools - such as in Asia or Africa - for highly skilled workers. These regions may have lesser-developed economies, but their education levels are rising rapidly. Switzerland also needs to provide opportunities for lower-educated workers to immigrate legally into the country."
Taking steps right here at home
It's no secret that Switzerland needs to compete for workers internationally because of the country's low fertility rate. And Lerch believes that there are several steps policymakers can take to address this. For instance, they can introduce practical measures and financial assistance to support families. They can also try to change prevailing views of what it takes to be a parent: "Swiss people tend to think that, before you can have kids, you have to be settled down with a house, a car and a good job," he says. "As a result, many couples put off having children until they reach an age at which it's biologically harder to conceive."
Threats and opportunities
The study's analysis of past trends shows that Switzerland has often benefited from immigration thanks to its high wages. For instance, the country mitigated the effects of the 1970s oil crisis by not renewing immigrants' short-term employment contracts, and was able to attract highly skilled workers in the early 2000s as well as in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis through its bilateral agreements with the EU. These workers have helped turn Switzerland's economy into one based largely on cutting-edge technology and specialized services.
