Improving Forecasts Of Winter Weather In Europe

Forschungszentrum Juelich

14 January 2026

An international measurement campaign will be launched in January 2026 to improve forecasts of winter storms and other extreme weather events in Europe. Scientists from Europe and North America will combine aircraft and ground-based observations to study atmospheric processes over the North Atlantic that influence strong winds, heavy rainfall and cold outbreaks. The campaign is coordinated by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and involves partners including Forschungszentrum Jülich.

Improving forecasts of winter weather in Europe
The HALO research aircraft in its parking position at Shannon Airport. With its nose mast, it measures atmospheric pressure during flight.
Copyright:
- Tuule Müürsepp, ETH Zurich

Many of the winter storms that affect Western Europe originate over the North Atlantic. They can bring severe winds, intense precipitation and, in some cases, significant damage. Forecasting when and where these events will occur, and how intense they will be, remains challenging because key processes take place in a region that is still sparsely observed. The international NAWDIC campaign addresses this gap by collecting targeted measurements in parts of the atmosphere where current weather and climate models show systematic weaknesses.

A key element of the campaign is the German research aircraft HALO, which can observe weather systems over the Atlantic at altitudes of up to around 13 kilometres. Researchers from Forschungszentrum Jülich's Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Stratosphere (ICE-4) use a high-precision hygrometer on board HALO to study water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. This sensitive region plays an important role in both weather development and long-term climate processes, yet is still not adequately represented in many models.

The team is also deploying a newly developed inlet system that makes it possible to quantify cloud water content during flight for the first time. Together, these measurements will improve understanding of atmospheric transport processes and, in the longer term, help to refine weather forecasts and climate models.

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