Further decompensation in cirrhosis is associated with increased mortality. However, reliable tools to predict further decompensation after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are currently limited. This study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of further decompensation within one year post-TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and to develop a predictive model for identifying high-risk individuals.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study enrolled 152 patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS for variceal bleeding and/or refractory ascites (January 2018–January 2024). Patients were stratified according to one-year decompensation outcomes. LASSO regression and multivariable logistic analysis were used to identify predictors, and a nomogram was constructed and internally validated using bootstrapping (1,000 replicates).
Results
Among the 152 patients (median age 57.5 years [IQR 50.0–66.0]; 58.6% male; 58.6% viral/alcohol-associated etiology), 65.8% (100/152) achieved clinical stability at one year post-TIPS, while 34.2% (52/152) developed further decompensation. LASSO regression identified right hepatic lobe volume, spleen volume, and portal pressure gradient (PPG) reduction as key predictors, all independently associated with further decompensation risk in multivariable analysis (OR [95% CI]: 0.683 [0.535–0.873], 1.435 [1.240–1.661], and 0.961 [0.927–0.996], respectively). The nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination compared with PPG reduction alone and benchmark prognostic scores (AUC 0.854 [0.792–0.915] vs. 0.619–0.652; ΔAUC +0.201–+0.235, p < 0.001) with 92.3% sensitivity. High-risk patients (score > 86) had a 10.7-fold higher risk of further decompensation than low-risk patients (60.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.0001).
Conclusions
In summary, 34.2% of decompensated patients with cirrhosis experience further decompensation post-TIPS, despite improved outcomes in most. Right hepatic lobe volume and post-shunt PPG reduction were identified as protective factors against one-year further decompensation, whereas spleen volume emerged as an independent risk factor. The nomogram model constructed based on these indicators demonstrated promising discriminative accuracy in stratifying patients with decompensated cirrhosis who are at high risk of post-TIPS further decompensation, serving as an evidence-based decision-support tool to guide therapeutic selection, risk quantification, and personalized management.
Full text
https://xiahepublishing.com/2310-8819/JCTH-2025-00199
The study was recently published in the Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology .
The Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology (JCTH) is owned by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University and published by XIA & HE Publishing Inc. JCTH publishes high quality, peer reviewed studies in the translational and clinical human health sciences of liver diseases. JCTH has established high standards for publication of original research, which are characterized by a study's novelty, quality, and ethical conduct in the scientific process as well as in the communication of the research findings. Each issue includes articles by leading authorities on topics in hepatology that are germane to the most current challenges in the field. Special features include reports on the latest advances in drug development and technology that are relevant to liver diseases. Regular features of JCTH also include editorials, correspondences and invited commentaries on rapidly progressing areas in hepatology. All articles published by JCTH, both solicited and unsolicited, must pass our rigorous peer review process.
