This summer, when bars and restaurants and stores began to reopen across the United States, people headed out despite the continuing threat of COVID-19.
As a result, many areas, including the St. Louis region, saw increases in cases in July.
Using mathematical modeling, new interdisciplinary research from the lab of Arye Nehorai, the Eugene & Martha Lohman Professor of Electrical Engineering in the Preston M. Green Department of Electrical & Systems Engineering at Washington University in St. Louis, determines the best course of action when it comes to walking the line between economic stability and the best possible health outcomes.
The group - which also includes David Schwartzman, a business economics PhD candidate at Olin Business School, and Uri Goldsztejn, a PhD candidate in biomedical engineering at the McKelvey School of Engineering - published their findings Dec. 22 in PLOS ONE.
The model indicates that of the scenarios they consider, communities could maximize economic productivity and minimize disease transmission if, until a vaccine were readily available, seniors mostly remained at home while younger people gradually returned to the workforce.
"We have developed a predictive model for COVID-19 that considers, for the first time, its intercoupled effect on both economic and health outcomes for different quarantine policies," Nehorai said. "You can have an optimal quarantine policy that minimizes the effect both on health and on the economy."
The work was an expanded version of a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model, a commonly used mathematical tool for predicting the spread of infections. This dynamic model allows for people to be moved between groups known as compartments, and for each compartment to influence the other in turn.
