Most of Western US Overdue for Wildfires

American Geophysical Union
A photograph of three workers dressed in yellow shirts and green pants with red and white firefighter hats on. They stand in the middle of a blackened field with the far side of the field burning and on fire as they standby and monitor.

Prescribed burnings in Lower Table Rocks, Medford, Oregon.

Credit: Bureau of Land Management Oregon and Washington

While much of the west may be behind on its annual fires, the southwest is facing the opposite problem. Human-started wildfires have spurred a fire surplus in shrublands and chapparal ecosystems, especially in Southern California. I

"You're getting more fire than you would have historically, which can even threaten resilience," Hansen said. "These shrubland ecosystems might not be able to regenerate if the fire is too frequent."

Parts of Cascadia are also in a fire surplus due to climate change increasing extreme temperatures and droughts, both of which help set the stage for blazes.

"I was a little bit surprised to see these signals of climate change-driven surplus already," said Hansen. "I'd expected that would be something we would see in the next decade or two instead."

Contributed by Riley Thompson

Abstract information:

B42C-08 Erasing the western US forest-fire deficit will require approximately 60 million hectares of ecologically beneficial burning over the next decade.

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