In a study released Wednesday, NASA researchers used precision-tracking data from the agencys Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft to better understand movements of the potentially hazardous asteroid Bennu through the year 2300, significantly reducing uncertainties related to its future orbit, and improving scientists ability to determine the total impact probability and predict orbits of other asteroids.
The study, titled Ephemeris and hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx data, was published in the journal Icarus.
NASAs Planetary Defense mission is to find and monitor asteroids and comets that can come near Earth and may pose a hazard to our planet, said Kelly Fast, program manager for the Near-Earth Object Observations Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. We carry out this endeavor through continuing astronomical surveys that collect data to discover previously unknown objects and refine our orbital models for them. The OSIRIS-REx mission has provided an extraordinary opportunity to refine and test these models, helping us better predict where Bennu will be when it makes its close approach to Earth more than a century from now.
In 2135, asteroid Bennu will make a close approach with Earth. Although the near-Earth object will not pose a danger to our planet at that time, scientists must understand Bennus exact trajectory during that encounter in order to predict how Earths gravity will alter the asteroids path around the Sun and affect the hazard of Earth impact.
Using NASAs Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, scientists were able to significantly shrink uncertainties in Bennus orbit, determining its total impact probability through the year 2300 is about 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%). The researchers were also able to identify Sept. 24, 2182, as the most significant single date in terms of a potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%).
Although the chances of it hitting Earth are very low, Bennu remains one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, along with another asteroid called 1950 DA.
