-A society that would be able to guarantee against terrorist attacks is unfortunately probably a society we would not want, says Jacob Ravndal, professor at the Norwegian Police University College.
He is one of several researchers affiliated with the Center for Research on Extremism (C-REX) at the University of Oslo, and is involved in the publication Right-Wing Extremism in Norway after 22 July - Attitudes, Actors, Mobilisation and Resistance.
- Right-wing extremism in Norway is a small but serious security threat, says Anders Ravik Jupskås, head of C-REX and editor of the volume. He points out that the organised milieu is small, and that the existing groups are only to a limited extent involved in violence. In addition, there is little support for violent means in Norway.
- At the same time, the threat is serious because there have been a disproportionately high number of terrorist attacks in Norway. We also have a fair amount of serious racist violence that 'flies under the radar'. Such attacks can have enormous consequences, as the 22 July terror fifteen years ago showed us with all possible clarity, he emphasises.
Jupskås notes that this can involve severe violence that is not necessarily categorised as terrorism, but which should still be regarded as right-wing extremist violence.
Most solo terrorists in Sweden and Norway
When it comes to what they call "the most visible part of the spectrum", meaning the most serious acts of violence, the terrorism researchers say that the level has dropped significantly since the 1990s. However, Norway stands out particularly negatively in terms of the number of solo terrorists - terrorists who operate alone.
- When we look at attacks carried out by lone actors whose aim is mass killing, Norway ranks second in Western Europe. Sweden tops the list. Two Nordic welfare states dominate this statistic, says Jacob Ravndal.
Even though the absolute numbers are low, he finds the trend worrying.
- When we as researchers look back at the fifteen years that have passed since the worst terrorist attack hit Norway, we speculate whether there is something about the welfare state itself that may enable such radicalisation processes, he says.
Ravndal points, among other things, to the fact that the welfare state can make it possible for relatively resourceful individuals, who speak English and have good internet access, to sit undisturbed in their childhood bedrooms living off various welfare benefits, and immerse themselves very deeply in extremist content.
-Those who have ended up as solo terrorists share certain characteristics. There is an overrepresentation of particular mental health conditions, especially along the autism spectrum. We see neglect early in life and, in general, a difficult life situation, he states.
This text is based on an episode of the University of Oslo's podcast "Universitetspodden", released in connection with the fifteenth anniversary of the 22 July terror attacks. In the episode, you meet Anders Ravik Jupskås, head of the Center for Research on Extremism, and Jacob Ravndal, professor at the Norwegian Police University College. They talk, among other things, about how the terrorism landscape in Norway looks today compared with earlier periods, what characterises potential solo terrorists, where the limits of surveillance should be drawn, and how to work with prevention.
Small organised milieu - but strong online hate
In other areas, Norway is an exception in a European context. Attempts to build right-wing extremist street movements such as the Norwegian Defence League, Pegida, SIAN and the Nordic Resistance Movement have largely failed.
-This is a form of 'imported right-wing extremism', where the initiatives come from abroad but fail to gain a foothold here. Norway scores low both on street mobilisation and on right-wing extremist attitudes, points out Anders Ravik Jupskås.
The head of the Center for Research on Extremism notes that around six per cent of the population have "some sympathies in a right-wing extremist direction", while only 0.3 per cent clearly support such positions. Norway also does not have any right-wing extremist parties with genuine electoral support, according to Jupskås.
He is, however, concerned about another negative development.
- Harassment and hate directed at politicians, researchers and minorities threaten, in my view, to hollow out democracy. People withdraw from public life. Then we risk that the institutions that are supposed to represent all of us become less representative, says Jupskås.
He believes that this type of erosion of liberal-democratic values will be important to understand better in order to prevent terrorism more effectively.
Norwegian Police Security Service between security and freedom
One of the most difficult topics to address today, according to the terrorism researchers, is increased surveillance. They point out that the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) and the police have been given steadily expanded and new powers in the years after the 22 July attacks.
-Today, individuals can receive a visit from PST at home because they have expressed extreme but lawful views in social media. In the best case, this may have a dampening effect. In the worst case, it makes them more embittered and more secretive. The effect is very difficult to measure, says Jacob Ravndal.
He calls for a public discussion about where the line should be drawn for political surveillance.
At the same time, Jupskås stresses that Norway still has strict rules requiring PST to have 'concrete grounds' for surveilling individuals.
In the evaluation of the terrorist attack against Pride on 25 June 2022 in Oslo, the commission pointed out that PST had reduced its focus on Arfan Bhatti precisely because they lacked such grounds - while attack planning was likely already under way.
- We ended up commending PST for following the law, even though the outcome was tragic. This illustrates that we can never make ourselves completely safe from terrorism if we are to adhere to liberal-democratic principles, says Ravndal.
He reminds us that today's PST is partly a result of the strong criticism expressed by the former Lund Commission regarding unlawful surveillance of the political left.
- We need to ask whether we are in the process of repeating some of the same patterns - just with new 'enemies, says Ravndal.
Security problem or care problem?
A recurring point in research on right-wing extremism is that the link between attitudes and actions is more complex than is often reflected in public debate.
-Many of the most notorious hate-spewers online already have a criminal record. They cross boundaries in several areas of life, not just politically, emphasises Anders Jupskås.
Jacob Ravndal believes the time has come for society to have a more fundamental discussion about how we view extremism:
- In a well-functioning liberal democracy, it is often those who fall outside the system who become its opponents. The question is whether we should primarily approach this as a security problem - or as a care and welfare problem.
Anders Ravik Jupskås underscores the importance of strong institutions and high levels of trust both between citizens and towards the authorities. Work, education, local communities and voluntary organisations are important building blocks in a democracy.
- To prevent terrorism, it is also important to pay particularly close attention to those who do not cope well in a society that, for the great majority, works very well, says the head of the Center for Research on Extremism.
