Forecasters within NOAA's National Weather Service predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA's outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms . Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 178 kmh/111 mph or higher).
NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
If the predictions are correct, this will be the tenth successive season with above average activity. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The season is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors. This includes continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.
The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
NOAA announced a number of new products and services to strengthen analysis and forecasts.
"NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings," said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. "With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season."
"As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. "NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property."
It only takes one landfalling storm to turn back years of socio-economic development.
Three hurricanes in particular, were especially destructive in 2024 . Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Atlantic basin Category-5 hurricane on record, with major impacts in the Caribbean. Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused catastrophic damage in the United States.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from 1 June to 30 November and is carefully monitored by WMO's Tropical Cyclone Programme . The US National Hurricane Center acts as WMO's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center.
Between 1970 and 2021 tropical cyclones (the generic term which includes hurricanes) were the leading cause of both reported human and economic losses worldwide, accounting for more than 2 000 disasters.
However, the death toll decreased from more than 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in 2010-2019. Reported economic losses in 2010-2019 were at 573.2 billion dollars.
Early warnings by the WMO community and improved disaster risk management have dramatically reduced fatalities, but economic losses are rising.
This is why WMO and its partners have prioritized early warning action in small islands under the international Early Warnings For All initiative .
