How people deal with uncertainty influences their political behaviour - and the stability of democracy. A new study by ETH Zurich shows that if uncertainty is seen as an opportunity, the willingness to vote for right-wing populist parties such as AfD decreases.
In brief
How people react to uncertainty has far-reaching socio-political consequences. If uncertainty is perceived as a threat, people tend to turn to political extremes.
Psychologists from ETH Zurich have now investigated whether people can also perceive uncertainty as an opportunity. They found that people who do so were more positive about diversity, more supportive of social change and less likely to vote for the right-wing populist party AfD.
Changing the way in which people view uncertainty could strengthen democratic resilience.
A pandemic, a war, an energy crisis, the climate catastrophe - for many people, present-day life feels like an endless stress test. What seemed certain yesterday has now become fragile - including jobs, plans for the future, and trust in politics and the media. In this uncertain atmosphere, people increasingly seek orientation and look for simple answers. Right-wing populist movements have turned this into a recipe for success - and convert uncertainty into fear, fear into anger and, ultimately, anger into votes.
Seeing uncertainty as an opportunity
Researchers from ETH Zurich have now investigated whether uncertainty can also be a starting point for positive change. In a external page study published recently, they show that people who see uncertainty as an opportunity are more positive about social diversity, more supportive of social change and less likely to vote for right-wing populist parties. In other words, it is possible to influence the assessment of uncertainty in a targeted manner.
To test these hypotheses, the researchers conducted an experiment with a test group and a control group. Both groups had to answer the same questionnaires, but the test group watched a presentation beforehand. Over the course of 11 slides, they were shown text, graphics and photos setting out scientifically proven examples of the positive effects of uncertainty. The presentation also included excerpts from a commencement address at Stanford University by IT entrepreneur Steve Jobs, in which he explained how important it was for him to have chosen an uncertain path in life. The exercise lasted an average of 7.5 minutes and was performed only once, at the beginning of the experiment.
A test in times of great uncertainty
The study was carried out in Germany between December 2024 and March 2025. The researchers deliberately opted for the period of the German parliamentary elections, which were held in February 2025. These elections were dominated by issues such as immigration, refugee policy and the integration of minorities - a climate of political uncertainty that offered a real-world context for the experiment. A total of 391 people took part in the experimental group and 354 in the control group. The participants were between 18 and 80 years old and were representative of the entire Federal Republic of Germany in terms of education, gender, income, and social and geographical origin.
Uncertainty gave way
The completed questionnaires from the test group differed significantly from those of the control group. Indeed, all of the hypotheses were confirmed: the experimental group was more positive about diversity, more willing to support social change and less likely to vote for AfD.
The most surprising thing for study leader Ruri Takizawa was that although this was a short, one-off exercise, the resulting mindset remained stable over a period of one month. Takizawa, a postdoc in the group of ETH Professor Gudela Grote, says: "With an adapted design, the study could also be applied to other areas. We could equally examine whether attitudes towards the climate crisis or new technologies such as AI would change."
For Grote, promoting a mindset that sees uncertainty as an opportunity is undoubtedly an important resource when it comes to strengthening democracy. The study lays the foundation for this by showing that the feeling of uncertainty is malleable and can also be interpreted positively. With this concept, uncertainty in times of political and social instability could strengthen cohesion and weaken support for right-wing populist parties such as AfD. As a leading researcher in the field of uncertainty, however, co-author Grote takes a realistic view: "We can't change the world completely, but we have some control over how we think about it and how we deal with it."
Reference
Takizawa R, Marx-Fleck S, Gerlach A, Grote G: The Role of Uncertainty Mindsets in Shaping Diversity Attitudes and Their Downstream Effects on Commitment to Societal Change and Right-Wing Populist Voting. external page Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin . 11 November 2025. doi: external page doi/10.1177/01461672251386487
