Jessica R. Greenberg is a University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign anthropology professor and the co-editor of the policy report "Populism and the Future of Transatlantic Relations: Challenges and Policy Options." Greenberg spoke with News Bureau business and law editor Phil Ciciora about political populism in the U.S. and Europe during the second Trump administration.
How much has President Donald Trump's second term reset the transatlantic U.S.-Europe relationship?
The transatlantic political order has been built on four foundational, interlinked pillars: security alliances; trade and finance; common institutions and rules; and shared democratic, liberal norms.
But to be blunt, that order as we know it is all but over.
In Trump 2.0, the U.S. has replaced cooperation and liberal trade with Europe with a zero-sum game of protectionism and tariffs. Trump's repudiation of multilateral cooperation in trade and security, his shunning of the rule of law at home and international law abroad, and his nativist politics reject everything the transatlantic alliance has stood for.
That's the bad news. The good news is that the alliance itself was always more than a simple handshake agreement among bureaucrats. It was a living, breathing set of commitments that guided Europe and America through difficult times. The alliance provided the institutional architecture for a world governed by multilateral cooperation. It offered best practices and pathways to respect sovereignty while binding national interests through common visions of peace and security. And it offered effective frameworks to link prosperity to democratic participation, human and constitutional rights, and equality.
How should the European Union deal with the changing transatlantic relationship?
Europe cannot afford to wait and see what might happen with the U.S., or to pretend things aren't as bad as they seem. Europe must go it alone, and it must reorient itself now.
As someone who cares about rule of law and democracy here and in Europe, and has studied European institutions for a very, very long time, it's been painful to watch this all unfold.
But I think Europe needs to be bold and brave. It needs to be more forward-looking and have a coherent security strategy with incontrovertible support for Ukraine. It needs to be a counterweight and push back where it can. It shouldn't hide behind proceduralism, nor does it need to reflexively defer to the U.S.
As our recent co-edited report argues, the EU is in an excellent position to forge ahead as a leader in international cooperation, trade and security, and democratic values. To achieve this, the EU needs to continue to integrate its economic and financial policies and bolster existing coordination mechanisms. Our report suggests the EU must take a firmer political line and more coherent response to Washington, beyond appeasement and a wait-and-see approach.
In short, the EU has political and financial leverage and it should not be afraid to use it.
The last 70 years are, in many ways, a blip in history in terms of securing this kind of transatlantic stability and peace. And I think both sides of the Atlantic have grown very complacent in what it means to actually fight for that.
While this is undoubtedly a challenging time, the EU is in a strong position to build on and continue to lead in the areas that made the transatlantic relationship successful for so long, if the political will is there.
Is this one of the effects of a turn to political populism?
There's been a global effort to destabilize the rule of law and democratic institutions, and Trump's disdain for a global legal order has found common cause with populists around the world from Hungary's Viktor Orbán to Argentina's Javier Milei.
One of the ironies of populism is that it's antielitist and anti-institution, yet they move people into institutions and try to reshape them from the inside.
It shows how you need to protect institutions, because once you break faith in them, rebuilding it takes a generation. But destabilizing it only takes a matter of years. When you lose it, you lose it. So that means protecting the institutional and rights guarantees that we have is really, really key.
While formal political alliances may sort of rise and fall on the whims of leaders, the connective tissue that makes the transatlantic relationship meaningful and sustainable is the relationship of policy makers and scholars going back and forth. Despite all this bad news, that pipeline is still there.
So even in the face of things like populism or rising authoritarianism in Europe and the U.S., I still believe that America will find its way back from the wilderness. And if Europe acts now to uphold the promise of the broken alliance, the U.S. will have a seat at the table to which it can return when it's ready.
