The Murray-Darling Basin is virtually certain to become hotter, rainfall likely to become more variable, and droughts very likely to become more frequent and severe, a new publication from the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) has found.
The MDBA has today released the 2025 Murray-Darling Basin Outlook - a forward-looking assessment showing how climate change could shape the values of the Basin by 2050 under existing management arrangements.
The Basin Outlook draws on the latest scientific evidence from the 2025 Sustainable Yields project providing a critical input to the Basin Plan Review to be completed in 2026.
The 2025 Sustainable Yields project was delivered with contributions from CSIRO, Australia's national science agency. It leverages significant advancements in climate science and modelling capabilities to underpin the 3 future climate scenarios explored in the Basin Outlook.
MDBA Chief Executive Andrew McConville said the report highlights that climate change compounds existing challenges like river connectivity, water security and water quality - all key areas that will be explored through the 2026 Basin Plan Review.
"This isn't a story of decline - it's a call to keep preparing, adapting and transitioning," Mr McConville said.
"Basin communities and industries have been adapting to our changing climate for many years, the Basin Plan gives us a foundation for doing exactly that," Mr McConville said.
The Basin Outlook draws upon the 3 plausible climate futures presented in the Sustainable Yields to project Basin outcomes to 2050:
- Hotter and slightly wetter - increased rainfall in warmer months could improve runoff in some regions but still bring more intense rainfall events and water quality challenges.
- Hotter and drier - this is the most likely direction of change in the Basin's hydroclimate.
- Hotter and much drier - rainfall and runoff decrease sharply, placing greater pressure on water availability, ecosystems and communities.
Under all scenarios, the Basin will experience higher temperatures and greater variability. The southern Basin is likely to see the largest declines in cool-season rainfall and runoff, while the northern Basin will experience stronger swings between dry and wet periods.
The Basin Outlook provides critical information to help governments, communities and industries plan for transition. The Basin Plan can and must continue to do its bit to enable this to happen.
"The Basin Plan has already helped us weather some of the toughest climate extremes," Mr McConville said.
"During the Tinderbox Drought, it was water for the environment that filled critically important waterholes in the northern Basin and as a result, also provided water security in some remote communities.
"The Basin Outlook shows managing water for different values and needs will become more complex in the future. Basin communities have overcome the challenges of our extreme weather in the past, and when pulling in the same direction, we can all do difficult things together."
"The Basin Plan Review is an opportunity to be clear sighted about the most pressing challenges the Basin faces now and into the future. Input from Basin communities will be pivotal in shaping the Basin Plan and identifying what else needs to happen to support the health of the Basin over the next 10 years," Mr McConville said.
The Review Discussion Paper will be released in early 2026, followed by a 12-week consultation period and call for submissions. The MDBA will release the Review Report, which will have findings and recommendations for governments to consider, in late 2026.
The full 2025 Murray-Darling Basin Outlook report, including detailed findings and methodology, as well as the Sustainable Yields Project report are available at mdba.gov.au.
