Members of socially and economically marginalized groups in Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau are at disproportionate risk in earthquakes, a new study has found.
Co-authored by McGill civil engineering professor Daniele Malomo, the study is the first in Canada to examine earthquake vulnerability through the lens of equity.
The researchers used spatial mapping and statistical techniques to identify where earthquake risk and social vulnerability intersect, revealing patterns of inequality tied to race, income, language and housing conditions. They drew their data from the 2021 Canadian Census and Canada's Probabilistic Seismic Risk Model.
"Traditional seismic risk assessment frameworks focus exclusively on tangible building vulnerability indicators and/or economic data," said Malomo, principal investigator of the project. "Adding the social component to it is unprecedented and particularly relevant in the diverse Canadian context. It adds a deeper level of understanding that better informs decision- and policymakers."
In both urban areas studied, earthquake risk was highest in neighbourhoods with older housing stock, which may be less able than newer construction to withstand seismic shocks. Recent immigrants, single-parent families, seniors and members of visible minorities are significantly more likely to live in such areas than are other people. In Montreal, people with lower education levels, those who speak languages other than English and French and those living alone are also disproportionately affected.
Traditional disaster-risk models tend to assess physical damage to infrastructure without accounting for the social conditions that leave some groups more exposed to harm.
"This study demonstrates that earthquake risk is a new and important addition to the conversation around equity, environmental justice and social justice in disaster planning," said Dr. Liton Chakraborty, research associate with the Climate Risk Research Group at the University of Waterloo and lead author of the study. "This shows that some people are facing more danger or environmental risks than others simply due to their social or economic situation," he added.
Governments and city planners can use this information to design more inclusive emergency response strategies and ensure that the most at-risk communities are not overlooked in efforts to improve public safety and disaster resilience, he added.
The researchers recommend that planners and policymakers integrate social vulnerability measures - such as income, education and housing conditions - into disaster-risk assessments and emergency-preparedness efforts. They also call for neighbourhood-specific emergency plans and targeted investments in older buildings and underserved areas.
About the study
Assessing the Environmental Justice Implications of Seismic Risk in Ottawa-Gatineau and Montreal Metropolitan Areas Liton Chakraborty, Daniele Malomo, Bora Pulatsu, Sheldon Andrews, Jennifer A. Spinney, and others was published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. The study is part of a larger project funded by the New Frontiers in Research Fund (Exploration stream), led by McGill's Daniele Malomo (PI), with Bora Pulatsu (Co-PI, Carleton University), Sheldon Andrews (Co-Applicant, ÉTS), Jennifer Spinney (Co-Applicant, York University), and Liton Chakraborty (research consultant).
