Researchers Ahead Of COP31: COP Has Become Talking Shop

"One of the most important issues is making progress on the phase-out of fossil fuels. So far, developments have been slow and decisions have been postponed," says Max Åhman, professor in environmental and energy systems at Lund University.

His research focuses on reducing emissions from industry, where electrification, often via green hydrogen, appears to be the only viable option. Electrification is one of the key priorities that the joint presidency of Turkey and Australia aims to advance during the negotiations, and a field undergoing transformation, with major investments in the production of green steel and green ammonia.

At COP31, Max Åhman will host an event on lessons learned from international collaborations on industrial electrification. However, he does not have high expectations for the negotiations.

"When it comes to electrification, I mainly expect general statements and commitments to reform electricity markets and expand renewable electricity to meet the needs of industry. My expectations aren't particularly high. Given the current geopolitical situation, I unfortunately find it difficult to believe that key countries will move away from existing positions," says Max Åhman.

More transparent reporting of emissions

Marko Scholze, senior lecturer at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, also highlights the urgent need for rapid emissions reductions.

"The most critical task is still to agree on emissions reductions and suggest mechanisms that go beyond net zero as soon as possible. That is the only way to avoid dangerous climate change," says Marko Scholze.

He will take part in a panel discussion in the EU Pavilion at COP31on the importance of atmospheric observations as a complement to current national greenhouse gas reporting. Today, all countries report their emissions using statistical data from various sectors in national greenhouse gas inventories. By comparing these with atmospheric observations, researchers can identify shortcomings and reduce uncertainties. There have previously been cases where atmospheric observations have identified sectors with inaccurate reporting. Using two independent methods therefore provides a more reliable picture of actual emissions.

Climate and clean air: two sides of the same coin

Ebba Malmqvist and Stefan Åström will also participate at COP31. They study the dynamics between air pollution, health and climate change. At COP31, their focus is on reducing short-lived climate pollutants such as black carbon, methane and ground-level ozone. These pollutants remain in the atmosphere for days to years, rather than centuries like carbon dioxide, meaning that reducing them can deliver immediate benefits for both the climate and public health. Black carbon is an example that contributes to global warming while also damaging the lungs and cardiovascular system.

Air pollution from fossil fuel combustion is estimated to cause around five million excess deaths globally every year. Solutions already exist, including renewable energy, clean cooking technologies, electrified transport, and cleaner heating systems, but they need to spread more effectively across countries.

"We hope that the health perspective will be given a more prominent place in climate negotiations, helping people understand that every step away from fossil fuels and every tonne of avoided black carbon and methane emissions also means cleaner air and healthier lives. We want health and clean air to become an integral part of climate policy, not just a side effect," says Ebba Malmqvist, associate professor at the Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

The role of faith-based actors at the negotiating table

Ely Orrego Torres is a political scientist whose research focuses on religion and politics in international organisations. She is travelling to COP31 to study how faith-based groups with different theologies, traditions and political perspectives come together around a shared agenda on climate, and what that cooperation looks like in practice during the negotiations.

"Faith-based actors speak from and for communities, often the ones living closest to the effects of climate change, especially those from the so-called Global South. They bring perspectives that might otherwise be missing from the negotiating rooms. They also bring a language of hope, responsibility and care, which can move the debate beyond the technical targets that are often the focus of COP meetings. Faith-based actors can translate global climate goals into language and actions that resonate with people's values and everyday lives," says Ely Orrego Torres.

The future of climate negotiations

After many years of meetings and still major challenges in tackling climate change, the relevance and future role of the COP conferences have been called into question. According to Max Åhman, the COP meetings will continue, but they are likely to play a different role than they once did.

"Today, they are increasingly a forum for discussions with few far-reaching decisions," says Max Åhman.

Nevertheless, researchers see a need for the world's nations to come together and negotiate on climate action.

"COP is needed. Even though it can be disappointing that progress is not happening faster, we need to draw inspiration from the agreements that have succeeded, such as those on reducing acidification and the depletion of the ozone layer," says Ebba Malmqvist.

"On one hand, it seems absurd to organise such a huge event every year and cause an enormous amount of emissions from participants' travel. But holding these meetings and continuing the discussions on emissions reductions is the only way to move forward," says Marko Scholze.