SE Aus Braces for Wind, Rain, Cold This Week

We'll start with a look at the satellite imagery from the last few hours. We can see plenty of cloud moving through eastern parts of South Australia, starting to push into western Victoria. Now this cloud band actually moved through Western Australia on the weekend, but it's now heading east, pushing in ahead of a low-pressure trough and cold front which are going to sweep across the south-eastern states over the next few days.

Now, this low-pressure trough and cold front are the first of several weather systems which are going to move through south-eastern Australia over the week ahead, bringing some fairly wet, windy and cold conditions. I want to start by taking a closer look at the winds. I'm going to look at the winds above the surface, around 1.5 km above the ground. I'm doing this to get an impression of how the winds are moving in the atmosphere, how the atmosphere is developing, and also the strength of some of those wind gusts that might reach the surface.

So starting with today, we can see the stronger winds streaming down across parts of south-eastern South Australia. So strong and gusty conditions are expected to develop. We could see some locally damaging gusts in parts, but they're only a low risk. As that burst of strong winds moves into Victoria tomorrow, however, there is a greater risk of damaging wind gusts. You can see the winds flaring, in particular about the elevated parts of Victoria.

Now, in response to that risk, we have issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds. It covers many of those elevated parts of Victoria and south-east alpine New South Wales. For Victoria, the risk is from early Tuesday morning all the way through until later in the day on Tuesday. We could see damaging wind gusts in any of these areas, bringing the risk of downed trees or tree limbs, potentially leading to dangerous driving conditions as well.

Through south-east alpine New South Wales, the risk is developing from Tuesday afternoon, pushing through into the evening. But it's not just Tuesday that's going to be a windy day. We see those very windy conditions continuing into Wednesday and through much of the rest of the week. You can see here that bursts of stronger winds moving off to the east during Wednesday, another low-pressure trough bringing further strong winds through the later part of Wednesday.

A little bit of a lull during Thursday, but still strong winds along the coast before a much stronger cold front moves up on Friday, bringing yet another burst of widespread strong winds. You can see these red and orange colours here. While it is likely to be strong and gusty at many times this week, there is that acute risk of locally damaging wind gusts in some areas. It is a really good idea to keep an eye on the forecasts and warnings over the next few days.

Now, another key feature of the week ahead is going to be the cold. To paint a picture of the cold, I'm going to look once again above the surface, temperatures about 1.5 km above the ground. Again, that gives me an impression of how the colder and warmer air is moving in the atmosphere. I've overlaid the forecast daily maximum temperatures though, so you can track how things are looking in your location.

Now, at the moment we're really looking at green colours across the map. So moderately cool conditions across the south-east. From around Wednesday, we see those colours start to tend blue, the cooler air starts to move in and our daytime maximum temperatures start to drop. That's going to continue through Thursday, but the coldest air is going to move in on Friday with that strong cold front. You can see the colours tending white-blue through those southern areas there. That coldest air is going to push through on Friday and Saturday with very low daytime maximum temperatures forecast.

It's also going to drop the snow level right down across that period. First of all, we're going to see the snow level dropping around the middle of the week. By early Thursday morning, that snow level's likely to be down to around 700m over Tasmania, around 1000m or so over the mainland. But as that coldest air moves in on Friday into Saturday, the snow level will drop even further. We can see the snow starting to flare in areas further north at lower elevations as well.

By Saturday morning, we're really expecting to see the snow level as low as 300 or 400m across Tasmania, in Victoria, as low as 600 or 700m, possibly bringing snow to areas like the Macedon Ranges and in New South Wales as low as around 800m, about the Central Tablelands and Blue Mountains, with possible snow flurries about the Barrington Tops and Northern Tablelands as well. It is likely to be a very wintry weekend next weekend, so make sure you're aware of that cold weather risk in your area.

Finally, a look at the rainfall over the next five or so days, from midnight last night out to around midday on Saturday. Fairly widespread moderate rainfall totals are expected across south-eastern Australia over the week ahead, with a particular burst of rain expected with the cold front tomorrow, Tuesday. But we can see some areas which are likely to see more rain than others, particularly through northern and western parts of Tasmania, about elevated parts of eastern Victoria, and through some parts of South Australia.

These areas are likely to see rainfall accumulations in excess of 50 to 80mm across the course of next week, with some locally higher accumulations as well. With wet, windy and cold conditions all on the way this week, it is essential to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau's website, the BOM Weather app and via our social media. Stay safe and we'll catch you next time.