Severe Weather: Heavy Rain, Winds, Waves Hit NSW

It is being driven by a low pressure system which is sitting off the north coast of the state, extending a low pressure trough further south, dragging in moisture and pushing it into any showers and thunderstorms that do develop. We have a whole host of weather warnings current for this weather system, so let me take you through them now.

Firstly, our Severe Weather Warning is for both damaging winds and heavy rainfall. It covers much of the mid-north coast, parts of the Hunter, and also parts of the northern and central Tablelands. Now in these areas, we are expecting to see the risk of heavy rainfall and locally damaging winds really increasing through the day today. Winds are likely to increase along the coast, first of all, and then push further inland through the course of today. Rain is likely to be heaviest through this afternoon in our warning areas.

Now we are expecting the wet and windy weather across a much broader stretch of the New South Wales coast, but it's this warning area that is likely to see the peak of those weather impacts. In anticipation of that forecast rainfall, we do have flood watches current, extending from around Coffs Harbour all the way down to around Newcastle and pushing across some of those inland catchments as well.

Now the catchments are very wet in these areas, especially thanks to a few wet weather events we've had in the last few months. Rivers are likely to respond fairly quickly to the rainfall that is forecast to continue through the course of today, and we may see some of these flood watch areas upgraded to flood warnings, particularly later today going into the overnight period. We already have one flood warning current, and that's for the Peel River, especially around Tamworth. At this location, we are likely to see the flood level reaching that moderate flood level, most likely later today going into the overnight period.

Now, these flood watches and warnings are current as of mid-day on Saturday, but we may see further updates to these watches and warnings through Saturday afternoon and evening. We also have a Coastal Hazard Warning in place at the moment for damaging surf. Now it covers much of the Mid-North Coast, the Hunter Coast and the Central Coast. And it flags the risk of large and powerful surf, which could lead to coastal erosion or some localised damage to coastal infrastructure.

We're also likely to see dangerous conditions out on the water, which makes boating, swimming and fishing inadvisable at this time. Wherever you are, if possible, stay away from those coastal areas as large waves are going to make things fairly dangerous.

Let's take a look at how the next couple of days will play out. Now, a low pressure system is expected to gradually push over the north-eastern parts of New South Wales through the course of Saturday. It will pull strong winds and heavy rain across the east coast, mainly focused through the Hunter area and those surrounding areas as well. Later today, that low pressure system is expected to weaken out, although we will still see the heavy rain and strong winds continuing for parts of the coast.

Going into the overnight period tonight and into Sunday, a new low pressure system will start to move in from the east. It's likely to push up the coast through the course of our Sunday, but it's not likely to bring the same impacts as today's low pressure system will. What that means for our weather is that rain and winds are likely to gradually ease back through the course of Sunday, particularly Sunday afternoon. It's likely to remain breezy and wet, with the risk of large waves continuing, but it is unlikely to be as severe as what we're expecting later today and in the overnight period.

Now, rainfall totals expected between midnight last night and Sunday evening show a fairly widespread 50 to 100mm across much of the New South Wales coast, including around Sydney, Wollongong and pushing across parts of the North West Slopes and Plains and Northern Tablelands as well. The peak rainfall accumulations are expected across parts of the Hunter and Mid-North coast, and may be enhanced locally by any thunderstorms that develop over the next couple of days or so.

It's a good idea to keep an eye on the radar over the next couple of days to track where that rain and thunderstorm risk is. And also to keep on top of the latest forecasts and warnings as we go through this period.

To recap, those main impacts we're expecting: winds could bring damage to trees, tree branches, property or cars. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and eventually riverine flooding, particularly in our warning areas, and large waves could lead to coastal erosion across a broad stretch of the New South Wales coast.

As this situation unfolds, please stay on top of the forecasts and warnings via the Bureau's website, BOM Weather app and via our social media. Stay safe and we'll catch you next time.